💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

UPDATE 4-New Zealand's central bank cuts rates, signals may be done easing

Published 10/11/2016, 03:49 pm
© Reuters.  UPDATE 4-New Zealand's central bank cuts rates, signals may be done easing
NZD/USD
-

* RBNZ cuts benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.75

* Has open mind on potential of currency market intervention

* Reviewed decision after U.S. election shock

* Keen to add DTI instruments to policy toolbox (Recasts and updates with more comment from Wheeler and economists on external risks, potential addition of DTIs)

By Charlotte Greenfield and Jane Wardell

WELLINGTON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank said international factors, including U.S. political uncertainty, were the major risks to the country's economy after it lowered interest rates to a record low of 1.75 percent on Thursday.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that future rate cuts were unlikely after its third cut this year as it forecast inflation heading back into its target range, but did not rule them out entirely.

"There's uncertainty about Brexit. There's lots of issues around debt accumulation in China, particularly around corporate debt," RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler told reporters. "And we've seen a result overnight that has clearly surprised the markets."

Wheeler said the bank's policymakers met again on Thursday morning to review the planned 25 basis point cut following the election of Donald Trump as the next US President, and affirmed the cut was the right decision.

Wheeler said the RBNZ was lobbying the government to add further macroprudential measures to its arsenal in the form of debt-to-income ratio limits (DTI) as it struggles to get to grips with stubbornly low inflation without stoking an already hot housing market.

Wheeler suggested the bank had no immediate plans to use DTI ratios as house price inflation - although "excessive" - was beginning to slow.

The RBNZ ramped up its use of another macroprudential tool earlier this year, tightening lending rules, known as 'loan-to-value' ratios (LVRs), requiring buyers to put down a 40 percent deposit on investment properties. you've seen is that when they've introduced macro-prudential measures, they see it as a way of addressing the pressures in the housing market and as long as inflation remains low it still warrants rate cuts," Christina Leung, economist at the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research, told Reuters.

Wheeler said a further meeting with the finance minister on the issue was planned "in a couple of weeks".

New Zealand's economy grew an annual 3.6 percent in the second quarter - better than most of its rich-country peers - an the jobless rate also dropped to near eight-year lows of 4.9 percent in the third quarter as employment blew past all expectations.

Yet the surge in jobs is being met by a record influx of migrants, keeping pay claims suppressed. Wages grew only 1.6 percent in the year to September.

At just 0.2 percent, inflation is well below the RBNZ's target band of 1 to 3 percent.

The NZ dollar briefly rose more than a third of a U.S. cent to $0.7342 NZD=D4 as the market digested the central bank's projected rates at 1.7 percent next year, suggesting only a 20 percent chance of a further cut in the Pacific island nation.

The RBNZ reiterated that the kiwi, one of the best performing major currencies in the world and up nearly 7 percent this year, was higher than sustainable.

Asked if the bank's system of "traffic lights" to determine whether conditions warranted intervention in the currency market were currently showing green, Wheeler said: "I'd rather not cover that at this stage."

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said short term commodity-sensitive currencies such as the NZ dollar were vulnerable after Trump's election due to "shaky market risk sentiment and a more hostile approach to trade."

However, he added there was potential for some added drag on the currency "to the extent that Chinese growth is impacted by U.S. trade sanctions."

ASB is forecasting the kiwi to fall to around $0.7000 by mid-2017.

Thirty of 33 economists polled by Reuters had expected the RBNZ to cut rates by 25 basis points this week. NZ/POLL

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.