In an entirely expected turn of events, major American networks declared Donald Trump the winner of the first Republican primary in the state of Iowa, just half an hour into the caucus.
Twice-impeached former president
Despite facing 91 criminal charges across four cases, two impeachments, losing office three years ago and not attending any of the candidate debates in the lead-up, Trump prevailed in the ballot on a frigid night in Iowa with more than 50% of the vote.
The margin of the victory was greater than the last major poll predictions and dominated nearly all of Iowa's 99 counties. Trump came in around 30 points ahead of the second-placed Ron DeSantis, marking the largest-ever victory in a Republican Iowa caucus.
Trump, striking an unusually conciliatory tone in the glow of victory, called for unity across political lines in his victory speech.
The Iowa caucus signals the onset of the primary race for the 2024 US election and highlights the enduring support for Trump among his base.
Stage set for a Trump-Biden showdown
Whether the divisive ex-president can convert the support from his Republican base into victory in a general election remains to be seen, but polling suggests he would win against the incumbent, President Biden, by a considerable margin.
Biden’s poll figures remain underwater, despite a raft of reforms and triumphs on the economy, with many pundits pointing to his extreme age – 86 at the end of his next term if he were to serve it – as a campaign-crippling factor.
Despite the severe cold, with temperatures plunging to -27 degrees Celsius, Trump’s supporters displayed unwavering commitment to their man.
Trump's presidency and personal manner are remembered fondly by his base for stronger immigration policies and improved personal financial situations, and this continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
His appointment of three conservative Supreme Court judges, culminating in the overturning of the constitutional right to abortion, made him the darling of the Republican establishment, despite his self-professed outsider status.
Trump's legal challenges, rather than deterring his base, seem to have galvanised support, with many perceiving the charges as politically motivated.
Work cut out for Haley and DeSantis
The focus now shifts to New Hampshire, where the primary results will further shape the race. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, both positioning themselves as alternatives to Trump, face increasing pressure to consolidate their standings.
Haley, who finished third in Iowa, is anticipated to perform better in New Hampshire, which could be crucial ahead of the South Carolina vote.
As the 2024 election campaign intensifies, Trump's strategy seems two-fold: securing the Republican nomination swiftly and managing his court cases to stay out of jail ahead of the general election.
Despite potential trial delays and constitutional uncertainties regarding his eligibility if convicted, it’s clear Trump's ability to leverage media attention remains undiminished.