Let’s take off the rose-coloured glasses for a moment - we all know decarbonisation can’t and won’t happen overnight.
We can’t just shut down existing energy grids. Nor, do we have automatic replacements for gas, oil or other fuels.
The clean fuel industry is burgeoning but we are far from replacing one for another. A complete move to wind, solar, hydrogen and other renewables or even nuclear is years away.
So, while we move to clean energy solutions and decarbonisation actions, people still need to keep the lights on and the stove top cooking.
The problem is not an ideological one, it is an engineering one. How do we engineer the future to meet ideological objectives?
Revamping energy infrastructure
Transforming Australia into a zero-emission nation entails a massive revamping of our energy infrastructure, akin to an orchestrated industrial revolution. It's an ambitious, costly and high-risk venture that explores uncharted territory in powering the entire continent solely through renewables.
This endeavour invites uncertainties. To handle the risk, we need robust strategies, less focused on virtue signalling and more oriented towards contingency planning. The new power grid should be designed to withstand various challenges, including renewable and traditional energy crises, as well as weather-induced outages.
One pressing concern is the transition period. The anticipated delays in developing new transmission lines, renewable energy sources and related storage projects are familiar within the energy industry. It will take time to navigate global resource limitations, skills shortages and local community dissent.
There's also the question of how long our ageing coal power plants can continue to function while we wait for greener alternatives. Energy industry leaders have increasingly voiced concerns about reliability issues, often a presage to serious systemic problems.
In our future powered by renewables, standby generation capacity will be indispensable, ready to step in during emergencies. However, running older power plants at full tilt bears inherent risks and potential technical issues.
Investments, shutdowns and proper coverage
Recent investments by EnergyAustralia in the Yallourn power station in Victoria suggest the dire need for upkeep in these older stations or perhaps preparations for an extended operation beyond the planned 2028 closure. The secretive nature of this decision, however, raises questions.
The closing of AGL’s Liddell power station in NSW earlier this year and the absence of a replacement have resulted in the market operator issuing frequent warnings about inadequate generation capacity. Other stations are slated to close before replacements are ready, adding to the urgency.
Though a new gas generator is expected to be online by summer, it, along with a second yet-to-begin construction one, will only cover half the capacity of one coal power station. It's clearly insufficient.
In a pragmatic move, the Queensland Government is focusing on building new renewable systems and firming capacities before phasing out older systems. Their transparency in cost projections is laudable, though the proposed $14 billion Borumba pumped hydro storage might raise eyebrows.
There have been unsuccessful attempts by national energy agencies to implement market reforms for funding backup generators. However, backlash from activists resulted in these proposals being dismissed by state energy ministers.
As we move towards a future powered by renewables, standby generation capacity will be an essential part of our energy infrastructure, providing a safety net during times of crisis.
Balance is required
In the pursuit of a greener future, we must balance the reduction of emissions with maintaining reliable energy supplies.
This is not an ideological battle. It is an issue that requires practicality.
The energy industry's leading voices are warning us of potential pitfalls, urging us to prepare appropriately. Australia can best contribute to the global climate challenge by showcasing a safe and reliable transition to large-scale renewables, serving as an inspiration rather than a cautionary tale.