China's population declined by 2 million in 2023, marking the second consecutive year of decrease in the Asian superpower that held the mantle of world’s most populous country for decades until it was pipped by India last year.
The trading giant’s population now stands at 1.42 billion, as per the country's statistics bureau, and is now in second place to India, home to 1.44 billion, according to United Nations estimates.
The decline in birth rates poses a long-term economic and societal challenge for China.
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Despite government efforts, including incentives and the relaxation of the one-child policy to allow up to three children, the fertility rate remains low.
This trend, coupled with enhanced healthcare leading to longer life expectancy, is gradually ageing China's population, potentially impeding economic growth and straining government resources.
Though a lesser population drop is anticipated in 2024, many experts think that China's population decline is a long-term trend and an inherent characteristic of its demographic profile.
COVID deaths played a part
The Chinese Government attributed the contraction to a continual drop in birth rates for seven consecutive years, an ageing population and an increase in deaths, particularly following the cessation of the Zero COVID strategy.
The number of deaths was up by 690,000 to 11.1 million in 2023, more than doubling the increase of the previous year – driven by a surge of COVID deaths when the country opened up in December 2022.
While the exact number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 remains unclear, the officially reported figure was around 80,000 deaths from early December 2022 to mid-February 2023.
Experts believe the actual figure could be significantly higher, with estimates ranging up to 1.9 million.
Where are the workers?
More worryingly for the manufacturing economy was the shrinking number of working-age Chinese people – between 16 and 59 years of age – whose numbers have decreased to 61% of the total, while those aged 60 and older have increased to 21%.
The official retirement age in China is 60 for men and 50 or 55 for women.
And the birth rate remains a key concern for the CCP, despite a slight decrease in the rate of decline. Births fell by 540,000 (5.6%) in 2023 to 9 million babies – less than half the total in 2016.
These statistics exclude Hong Kong and Macao and are based on surveys, with a comprehensive census conducted every 10 years.
The reversal of the one-child policy, eased over 2014 to 2016 to allow more children, has had limited success in boosting birth rates.
Factors such as delayed marriages, the choice of having fewer children due to high educational costs, and the declining population of women of child-bearing age contribute to this trend.
Local governments are offering incentives for additional children, as seen in Inner Mongolia, where financial incentives and extended maternity leave are provided for second and third children.
President Xi Jinping has mentioned the need for state guidance on young people's views on marriage, parenthood and family, advocating for policies supporting parenthood and promoting ‘traditional Chinese family values’.
The government also recently issued guidelines to develop the so-called silver economy, focusing on the well-being of the elderly.
These include expanding geriatric care, developing senior-friendly products, protecting seniors from scams and improving accessibility to technology like television.
Demographic experts predict this decline will continue for decades, even if the fertility rate improves, with some projecting that by 2050, the segment of the population aged 65 or older could double to more than 30%.