Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) has seen notable shifts in its stock performance throughout 2023, marking a journey that oscillated between gains and declines, reflecting the intricacies of the energy market and external factors.
Comparative Analysis with ASX 200 Benchmark
Despite a sharp decline from the previous year's substantial rise of 47.3%, ORG is on track to conclude 2023 around 9% higher, slightly surpassing the ASX 200 benchmark, which saw an 8.2% increase for the year.
Brookfield's Buyout Bid and Its Repercussions
The year 2023 was marked by the ongoing news surrounding Brookfield's AU$10.6-billion buyout bid, which remained in play until its eventual rejection. The stock surged after the competition regulator cleared the takeover. However, the rejection of the bid in November led to a decline, and the deal fell through in early December.
Quarterly Stock Movements and Policy Impact
Origin Energy experienced varying trends in stock movements, with notable increases in the first three quarters but a decline of 4.4% in Q4. This decline coincided with the bid rejection and the subsequent deal failure. Moreover, Australia's new green energy policy and the government's 12-month cap on gas and coal prices adversely affected gas firms' share prices.
Comparative Performance with Energy Sub-Index and Peer Talks
The local energy sub-index is projected to end 2023 around 2.9% lower, a significant downturn from the 40% gain the previous year. Additionally, Santos (ASX: STO) saw a 7.4% increase YTD, while Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) is expected to incur losses of around 11% if current trends persist, amidst preliminary merger discussions.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Origin Energy's performance in 2023 reflected the volatile dynamics of the energy sector. The company navigated through bid uncertainties, policy impacts, and peer discussions, exhibiting resilience amid a fluctuating market.