Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) will provide an insight into how customers view paid streaming services as living costs rose over the past year when it reports fourth-quarter results after markets close on Thursday, 19 January.
The share price, having reached an all-time high of almost US$700 in late 2021, slumped to near five-year lows around US$166 in May last year on the back of two quarterly shortfalls on subscriber growth estimates, but has steadily climbed back to US$330.
Losing 203,000 and 969,000 in net subscriptions during the first and second quarters respectively last year, Netflix saw these figures bounce back, with 2.4mln additions in the third quarter.
Netflix forecasts net subscriptions to rise again in the fourth quarter, up 4.5mln, which will be the figure that investors always look for first, according to analysts at AJ Bell.
As for revenue, Netflix estimated US$7.8bn for the final quarter from US$7.9bn in the third and in line the with second, but meaning year-on-year growth would fall to 0.9% from 5.9% in the third and 16% at the start of last year, even though the company said it believed it is “on a path to reaccelerate growth”.
In terms of the expected earnings per share for Q4, guidance was for US$0.36 and there is a wide range of estimates from US$0.35 to US$0.78, with the consensus at US$0.45.
Bullish investors will seek confidence in Netflix’s “strong slate of shows, the launch of a new, discounted, ad-funded price package” and more “upbeat” forecasts towards the years end, the AJ Bell analysts said.
Surging production costs, weakening cash flow and Netflix’s US$7.8bn worth of debt were a cause for concern, they noted though, while there is also US$2bn tied into leases and over US$20bn in content purchase obligations.
Analysts at Jefferies this week upgraded Netflix to a 'buy' rating as its new, cheaper advertising-backed streaming service “will be slow to kick in, but when it does (paired with password sharing changes), it should drive top line outperformance”.
An even bigger kicker will be in 2024 when operating margin upside is anticipated to surprise on “flattish content amortization and better revenue growth”.
For the first quarter of 2023, analysts have pencilled in EPS estimates of US$2.89 and revenue of US$8.1bn.