By Sam Boughedda
RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) with an Outperform rating and a $200 per share price target on Thursday.
RBC analysts told investors in a research note that they feel the COVID cliff and its "near-term impact to the P&L are well appreciated."
"With the virus now widespread, less fatal, and having modest impact on public behavior, the US and EU have transitioned to the endemic phase of the outbreak," stated the analysts. "After ~$38b in cumulative revenue for 2021/22, guidance numbers are coming down, but we think this is well appreciated with the stock -$150b in market cap (or the current value of SNY and BIIB combined) since pandemic bubble times."
For 2023, they state that RBC believes the numbers are "relatively uncontroversial" with the "$5 billion in guided 2023 floor (which excludes ongoing negotiation in US, EU and Japan) and multiple comps that help frame the math."
In addition, volume evolving, price, new variants, and compliance offer potential upside, according to the analysts.
"On RSV, data is impressive, and MRNA can differentiate by bundling with COVID. On flu, data is more mixed, but we think upcoming Phase III is likely to work," they added.
"Overall, we think all of this is in the stock, but we are cancer vaccine believers given impressive melanoma signal that may translate across cancers. With full data near-term, and MRK analogizing with the early days of PD1 ($35b market today), we initiate at Outperform."