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Macro outlook: US CPI in focus, RBNZ to hold rates

Published 12/08/2024, 07:50 am
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Investing.com - Ahead in the week investors will be looking towards some key data releases both locally and abroad following a spike in volatility last week amid rising recession concerns and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade.

Locally, key releases include the NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence indexes, along with labor market data for July. In New Zealand, The Reserve Bank is expected to hold its interest rate unchanged.

In the Asian-Pacific, South Korea will update its unemployment rate, while Japan’s Q2 GDP is expected to rebound, with updates on capital expenditure and the GDP deflator likely to impact future BoJ decisions.

In the US, the focus will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve officials. CPI and core CPI are expected to show slight deceleration, while PPI is anticipated to increase at a slower rate

Retail sales are forecasted to rise 0.3% after a flat reading in June, while Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% slowing from a 0.6% increase in June.

Other notable releases will include housing starts, building permits, Michigan consumer confidence, consumer inflation expectations, NFIB Business Optimism Index, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

On the corporate front, earnings reports are expected from Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD), Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO), Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT), Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT), and Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) as the earnings season winds down.

China will release data on industrial production, retail sales, housing prices, fixed asset investment, and the unemployment rate for July, offering further insights into the economic slowdown. New loan aggregates will also be of interest following the PBoC’s rate cuts.

India is poised to see a headline inflation rate below the RBI’s 4% threshold for the first time since 2019. Industrial production data will also be released.

In the UK, Key economic reports due include GDP growth for Q2, trade balance, manufacturing and construction output, unemployment, inflation, and retail sales.

The UK economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in Q2, while inflation is projected to rise to 2.3% in July, and the unemployment rate may increase to 4.5%.

Throughout Europe, Germany will update its ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, expected to drop to a six-month low.

The second estimate of Euro Area GDP is expected to confirm 0.3% growth in Q2, while Industrial production in the Euro Area is projected to rebound in June.

The Norges Bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged.

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