Investing.com -- Lufthansa shares dropped over 2% Friday as HSBC downgraded the airline from Buy to Hold, citing limited visibility on earnings and reducing its price target from €8.00 to €7.00.
HSBC's cautious outlook follows Lufthansa's recent Q3 conference call, where the airline lowered its 2024 revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) guidance to a "mid-single digit" decline, down from the previous "low to mid-single digit" decline expectation.
HSBC analysts lowered their adjusted EBIT estimate for Lufthansa's 2024 fiscal year to €1.49 billion, below consensus expectations of €1.66 billion.
The bank said its 4Q24 adj EBIT estimate is 31% below Visible Alpha consensus, reflecting doubts about the company's ability to meet full-year targets.
Lufthansa reiterated its full-year EBIT guidance of €1.4-1.8 billion, but HSBC sees potential headwinds, especially in cargo performance.
The bank adds that Lufthansa's cargo segment has shown disappointing results, with Q3 adjusted EBIT in this division reaching only €38 million—below the consensus of €49 million.
They noted that Kuehne & Nagel's CEO recently tempered air cargo expectations, contrasting earlier forecasts.
Further, HSBC expressed concern over Lufthansa's limited guidance for 2025, citing "limited visibility." The company's new CFO, who joined only recently, was unable to offer specifics on capacity planning for next year, a lack of foresight that HSBC finds worrisome given the stability at the CEO level.
"While we continue to believe that the market is undervaluing Lufthansa's MRO business, the limited visibility that the company provides at this point and our lower-than-consensus estimates for 2024 and 2025 make us more cautious on the stock," said HSBC.
The analysts added, "We are generally cautious on the aviation sector going into 2025."