Highlights:
- Record Highs: The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price reached a new record high of $134.48, reflecting over a 27% increase in value over the past year, despite widespread analyst predictions of overvaluation and a potential correction.
- Analyst Sentiment: Most analysts continue to label CBA shares as overvalued, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio significantly higher than its peers, leading many to maintain sell ratings, except for one analyst who remains optimistic.
- Defying Expectations: Despite the consistent bearish outlook from analysts, CBA has demonstrated resilience and continued strong performance, contradicting forecasts of a sharp decline in share price.
If you caught an unexpected thwacking noise this morning, it was the sound of market analysts dropping their jaws as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price hit yet another record high.
That’s right!
Despite a near-consensus among analysts labeling CommBank shares as overvalued and predicting a steep correction, Australia’s largest bank continues to reward its loyal shareholders. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed Friday’s trading at $133.14. As we approach the lunch hour on Monday, shares are now trading at $134.48—an increase of more than 1%. If the bank can maintain this level until the end of the trading day, it will register a new all-time high for the CBA share price. Over the past year, shares in the big four banks have surged more than 27%, excluding dividends.
What Are Analysts Saying About the CBA Share Price?
Despite its market position, analysts have described the CBA share price as modestly to extremely overvalued for over a year, largely due to a bearish outlook on bank stocks in general. More specifically, their concerns are tied to the premium that CommBank shares command compared to their competitors. Currently, the CBA share price reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.5 times. For comparison, other major banks are trading at the following P/E ratios:
- Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ): 13.0 times
- National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB): 17.4 times
- Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: ASX:WBC): 16.1 times
A significant number of brokers, analysts, and fund managers hold sell ratings on CBA stock. As noted by Motley Fool analyst Zach Bristow, "CLSA's Ed Henning is the only investment bank broker who does not recommend that clients sell CBA shares." Henning is optimistic, suggesting that only a major economic downturn could hinder the bank's robust performance.
Among the more skeptical analysts, firms like Bell Potter and L1 Capital echo caution. Barrenjoey analysts stated they have "not seen a case where a stock has traded so far from its fundamentals, its peers, both domestically and internationally, and its own history" without subsequently experiencing a sharp decline.
E&P Financial Group banking analyst Azib Khan took a particularly bearish stance, advising investors to sell CommBank stock with a price target of just $80, indicating a potential drop of over 40% from current levels.
However, it’s important to note that many of these analysts have been consistently making bearish predictions about CBA stock for over a year, yet the big four bank has so far defied expectations of a significant pullback.