The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Netherlands is threatening to close up to half of all petrol stations in the country in the next five to ten years, according to research by Dutch bank ING.
The Netherlands boasts the fourth-highest uptake in the world of EVs in its passenger car fleet as of 2021, with 8.2% of passenger vehicles being electric.
The European country plans to reach 100% zero emissions in all new passenger cars sold by 2030, an ambition supported by strong government incentives and commitment to building the required infrastructure – the Netherlands has the second densest EV charging network in the world after South Korea, with 21.9 charging stations per 100 kilometres.
Simply not enough profit
There will simply not be enough demand to go around, according to ING Research, which expects about 2,000 of the current 4,131 petrol stations in the Netherlands to close within the next five to ten years.
“It is mainly the small, unmanned petrol stations that will disappear,” ING Research asserts, as reported in De Telegraaf.
Station owners are attempting to compensate with greater focus on other services like snacks and drinks or car washing services, but the long-term outlook for the business model is not bright.
“A quick calculation shows how long petrol station owners can still sell petrol,” Trade and Retail sector banker at ING Research Dirk Mulder said.
“A new car remains in the Dutch fleet for an average of 19 years. The last petrol and diesel cars will come onto the market in 2034 and will stay on the road until approximately 2053.
“A petrol station owner can therefore still sell fossil fuels for a while, but sales will continue to decline. Nothing will appear to happen until 2025, after which there will be a decrease in litres.”
Of course, it’s the smaller independent petrol stations that will feel the pain most and ING anticipates there will be a rash of acquisitions and takeovers during the transition period.