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FIVE at FIVE AU: Retail weakness suggests interest rates will remain on hold … for now

Published 28/11/2023, 04:02 pm
FIVE at FIVE AU: Retail weakness suggests interest rates will remain on hold … for now

The ASX is higher today.

The S&P/ASX200 gained 28.30 points or 0.41% to 7,015.90, despite crossing below its 50-day moving average. The index has lost 0.88% for the last five days but is virtually unchanged over the last year to date.

Top-performing stocks in this index are Collins Food Ltd and Healius Ltd, up 9.21% and 6.02% respectively.

The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) is up 0.99% to 2,697.70.

Looking at the sectors, the best performing was Real Estate which gained 1.52%. On the flipside, Energy took a 0.91% tumble.

Retail weakness supports RBA hold

The recent downturn in retail sales strengthens the argument for the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold interest rates steady, suggest ANZ economists Madeline Dunk and Adelaide Timbrell.

October saw a surprising 0.2% decline in retail sales and the year-on-year growth of 1.2% marks the weakest performance since August 2021.

"The clear weakness in the retail sector highlights the ongoing squeeze on household budgets and supports the case for the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at its December meeting," they say in a research note.

"While retail sales should receive a sugar hit from Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales in November, we expect the underlying trend in the series to remain weak. As we move into 2024, the rise in real household incomes should support retail sales."

CreditorWatch’s chief economist Anneke Thompson said of today’s release of the ABS Retail Trade figures.

“Retail sales fell an overall 0.2% over the month of October after recording rises in spending in both preceding months.

"For discretionary goods categories, this is to be expected, as many consumers will have chosen to hold off on spending for Black Friday sales, which are currently in progress.

"We expect that all categories of goods spending will see a good lift in spending in November due to these sales, following patterns that have emerged in recent years.

“The area of spending that is not impacted by Black Friday, cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, recorded a second straight fall in spending, after bucking the trend in other discretionary categories for many months. Spending in this category fell by 0.4% and is now back to July 2023 levels. This indicates that consumers have finally started to pull back on dining out, in the face of cost-of-living pressures and rising interest rates.

“What is concerning is that this sector already well and truly tops the rankings for external administrations by Industry. In the 12 months to December 2023, one in 100 food and beverage services businesses went into external administration.

"There are now rising headwinds in this sector, as demand falls, the ATO calls in large GST and other tax debts, and labour, rent and energy costs all continue to rise. The food and beverage sector is also the second highest-ranked industry for payment arrears (behind construction), with 9.3% of total invoices more than 60 days in arrears.”

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