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FIVE at FIVE AU: Recession fears ferment; US Fed likely to hike rates again

Published 10/10/2022, 04:36 pm
Updated 10/10/2022, 05:00 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: Recession fears ferment; US Fed likely to hike rates again
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The ASX fell today, shedding 1.18% or 80.10 points to 6,682.70, crossing below its 20-day moving average.

The other indexes shared the pain, red across the board with the Nasdaq (-3.80%) and the S&P500 (-2.80%) taking the hardest hits.

Every sector was also in the red today, with Utilities (-3.05%) and Information Technology (-2.39%) shedding the most and Consumer Staples (-0.19%) the least.

As for commodities, West Texas crude was unsurprisingly the biggest gainer on the back of OPEC throttling oil production, lifting 4.77%.

Lead (+1.43%) and nickel (+0.41%) were the only other commodities in the green, as palladium (-3.02%) and zinc (-2.56%) took the largest falls.

In the news

Recession fears grow in step with cost-of-living hikes

Bubbling economic pessimism may soon spill over into a full-on recession as soaring prices and global uncertainty create a feedback loop that pushes the economy deeper into uncertainty.

The fevered momentum the world economy enjoyed during COVID-19 is slowing, according to the Brookings-Financial Times tracking index, which pointed to falls in hard economic data and leading financial indicators as its signals.

Consumer and business confidence has fallen by the most in a decade this past year – bar the early months of the pandemic – but this most recent bout of cynicism may be a symptom of “a series of self-inflicted wounds”, according to Brookings Institution senior fellow Eswar Prasad.

“Growth momentum, as well as financial market and confidence indicators, have deteriorated markedly around the world in recent months.

“Many countries are already in or on the brink of outright recession amid heightened uncertainty and rising risks.

“Governments and central banks no longer have the luxury of unfettered fiscal and monetary stimulus to stabilise growth and offset adverse shocks.”

Despite all this, the economic dial hasn’t shifted far enough for central banks to reverse course on rate hikes either, bolstering fears we may be headed for a period of stagflation: a period of high inflation with low or imbalanced economic growth.

US market bets Fed will hike rates again

Adding to recession fears, the US job market has not eased as much as the market might have hoped, with unemployment still sitting at a five-decade low of 3.5%.

Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Seema Shah explains the implications of America’s job market on Federal Reserve policy.

“September’s jobs number is a hawkish reading, with almost all the elements of the report moving in the wrong direction for the Fed,” Shah said.

“Payrolls were broadly in line with expectations but, importantly in this good news is bad news period: markets were hoping for a downside surprise today.

“Instead, the number only confirms that the Fed needs to hike rates by a fourth consecutive 0.75% in November.

“More significantly, with unemployment back down to 3.5% and participation falling again, where is the evidence that tighter Fed policy is having any impact on the US labour market?

“Job openings may be coming down but if that isn’t combined with greater numbers of job seekers, wage pressures will remain still at their elevated level.

“With the Fed’s dot plot pointing to policy rates closer to 5% than 4% next year, we have a market that is wishing for the economy to slow quickly. That’s when you know there is only one path ahead: risk assets have further to fall.”

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