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FIVE at FIVE AU: RBA’s dovish stance breathes life into Australian markets

Published 06/12/2023, 03:50 pm
Updated 06/12/2023, 04:30 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: RBA’s dovish stance breathes life into Australian markets
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The Australian sharemarket was up today, gaining 125.30 points or 1.77% to 7,186.90 and setting a new 50-day high.

Mining stocks were prominent, with the top-performing stocks being Core Lithium and Chalice Mining, up 14.13% and 13.47% respectively.

Over the last five days, the index has gained 2.15% and 2.11% year to date.

Every sector was in the green or black after lunch, with Real Estate and Consumer Staples both up more than 2% after lunch. Utilities and Energy were up the least, 0.25% and 0.53% respectively.

RBA gives us a festive break

Markets were buoyant on the back of the released reasoning behind the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates on hold on Tuesday. These point to a potentially dovish forecast for the coming months, with data shocks such as inflation or jobs growth priced in.

“Following yesterday's dovish RBA on-hold decision and today's subpar Q3 GDP print, a significant shift has occurred in RBA pricing for 2024,” said analyst Tony Sycamore.

“The rates market sees the RBA's peak terminal rate at 4.35%. There is now a 50% chance of a 25bp rate cut by June next year and a full 25bp cut priced for November 2024 – exactly 12 months after the RBA delivered its last rate hike.

“If the ASX200 can see a sustained break above the 200-day moving average at 7,160, it will open up a move towards range highs of 7,380/7,400.”

eToro market analyst Farhan Badami added: "Australia experienced an unexpected slowdown in its economy as GDP rose by 0.2% for the third quarter of the year – a far reach from the market predictions of 0.4%-0.5% growth for the September quarter.

“This quarterly GDP figure equates to an annualised growth rate of 2.1%, which falls on the lower end of the spectrum for Australian standards. This deceleration was largely spurred by the impact of increased interest rates on consumers.

“Additionally, Australia's current account shifted into a deficit due to the decline in prices for certain commodity exports, ultimately impacting net exports and trade.

“Despite the grim figures, several factors actually contributed to overall growth. Government spending, private investments and public demand levels supported economic growth over the third quarter.

“A noteworthy takeaway was the decline in the household savings ratio, dropping from 2.8% to 1.1%, marking the lowest level recorded since December 2007 – a reminder of the negative impact high inflation has on households.

“Consumers face challenges as wages struggle to keep pace with climbing inflation, making it difficult to afford costly necessities. Additionally, climbing interest rates mean that Australians with mortgages have found it increasingly difficult to save in 2023.

“While markets broadly aren’t pricing in rate hikes over Q1 2024, the RBA will be compelled to take action if inflation persists, as they have emphasised their commitment to directly responding to data trends."

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