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FIVE at FIVE AU: Labor costs could force RBA to raise rates one last time; market continues to fluctuate

Published 08/08/2023, 04:05 pm
Updated 08/08/2023, 04:30 pm
FIVE at FIVE AU: Labor costs could force RBA to raise rates one last time; market continues to fluctuate
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The ASX was as high as 0.5% today, before falling back to a more modest gain.

The S&P/ASX200 is up just 2.90 points today to 7,312.10. The index has lost 1.86% for the last five days but sits 3.38% below its 52-week high.

Top-performing stocks in this index are James Hardie Industries and Reece Ltd (ASX:REH), up 14.08% and 3.98% respectively.

It was a mixed bag for the sectors today, with Consumer Staples the worst performed down 0.33%, followed by Real Estate which lost 0.23%. The biggest winner was Health Care which gained 0.46%, with Information Technology the next best sector at 0.15% higher.

The market continues to fluctuate but remains resilient.

Tiger Brokers highlights the growth of stock markets in FY23.

Does an interest rate rise loom?

Yes. According to UBS Australia chief economist, George Tharenou who pointed to NAB's monthly business survey, which shows a worrying spike in labour costs and selling prices last month.

A concern for the RBA is labour costs, which already surged in June on news of the minimum wage decision on 2nd June," Tharenou said. "In July, labour costs lifted even further to imply a wages bill of about 15% annualised, up from a prior trend of about 9%."

"Furthermore, selling prices also almost doubled, to be consistent with annualised inflation of about 8% year-on-year; which is now well above the monthly inflation indicator in June-23 which slowed sharply to 5.4% year-on-year.

"Meanwhile, employment intentions remain historically consistent with positive employment growth of about 2% year-on-year."

If any rate hike occurs, November is the likely date and the RBA will factor in the halving of the rate of increase in household spending from May to June.

Cost of living pressures are now starting to bite.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics show household spending increased by 1.8% in June, a decline from 3.4% in May and 4.7% in April.

Clothing and footwear spend declined by 7.1% in June, while recreation and culture dropped by 3.4%.

Spending on miscellaneous goods and services increased by 8.4%; hotels, cafes and restaurants climbed by 4.2% in June.

Five at five

The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries dropped 0.64% today to 2,834.70. The fall didn’t stop a raft of small cap companies releasing some solid news today.

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