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FIVE at FIVE AU: Don’t worry, beer happy; jobs summit aftermath; and UK to swear in new PM…

Published 05/09/2022, 03:49 pm
Updated 05/09/2022, 04:31 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: Don’t worry, beer happy; jobs summit aftermath; and UK to swear in new PM…
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The ASX has defied expectations today.

The S&P/ASX200 gained 14.30 points or 0.21% to 6,843.00 after setting a new 20-day low. Over the last five days, the index has lost 1.76% and 9.04% over the last 52 weeks.

The top performing stocks in this index are Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) Ltd and Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) Ltd up 6.40% and 6.10% respectively.

One bourbon, one scotch, half a beer

While you’re sinking a few frothies at whatever footy code finals you’re following, spare a thought for the cost of the beer you are drinking and what it may cost next year – you may be a six-pack short of a slab.

According to eToro’s Beer Index, which looks at spot prices of the raw materials required by beer producers - from barley and malt, to aluminium and gasoline for packaging and transportation – the cost of the commodities required for the production, packaging and transportation of beer has risen by 62% in the past two years.

Breaking that down:

  • Gasoline costs have seen the biggest increase in two years, climbing 138%.
  • Barley and malt prices jumped 104% and 87% respectively, due to the war in Ukraine.
  • Rice is the only commodity to have fallen in price, dropping 1%, thanks to production outstripping demand every year for the last 15 years, leading to large stockpiles.

All in all, it’s a 62% increase in the price of beer production, which dramatically outpaces the 12% rise in UK CPI (this was a UK study, but has global ramifications) since July 2020, indicating there is more price pain to come for beer drinkers.

The rate of price growth dramatically outpaces the 12% rise in the UK consumer price index (CPI) over the same period, indicating there is likely to be some price pain to come for beer drinkers as brewers look for ways to offset their costs.

eToro Global Market analyst Ben Laidler said of the results of the first-ever beer tax: “The average price of a pint has risen by 8% over the past two years to £4.09, four percentage points behind the broader consumer inflation rise. But our Beer Index tells us that stronger price pressures are brewing and stiffer price rises could lie ahead.

“This could be unfortunate timing with the Oktoberfest starting in a couple of weeks and the football World Cup kicking off in November. One winner will be the tax man, with VAT and beer duty making up around a third of the cost of a pint and overall alcohol sales pulling in an estimated £450 of tax per household.”

Jobs Summit highlights long road ahead

CPA Australia believes the jobs and skills shortage could take a decade to fully resolve, despite the Jobs Summit’s delivering quick wins which could deliver rapid relief for businesses crippled by employee shortages.

“The jobs and skills shortage was decades in the making and will take years to unwind,” CPA Australia CEO Andrew Hunter said. “But the government now has momentum on its side and we are excited to see action on short-term wins.

“Our message to the government is don’t let this momentum go to waste. Continue to deliver meaningful relief to businesses where possible and get to work on the longer-term challenge of future-proofing Australia’s workforce.

“We want to see more concrete initiatives included in the October budget. Longer term, the White Paper will help us map our way out of this crisis.

“We can’t navigate out of this problem overnight. But we shouldn’t keep the handbrake on while we plan the second half of the journey. The summit took us closer to a solution; now is the time for action.”

The CPA called the summit a success but said solutions need to be found beyond increasing migration.

“Australia is in a war for talent against many other countries who are also experiencing a skills shortage. We need to ensure we are as attractive as possible to new migrants.

“We are also asking for a focus on skilling up Australians into the future, including a rethink of how we attract young people to professions struggling with shortages.”

UK to come under new leadership

In just a matter of hours, the UK will have a new Prime Minister.

A leader will be announced at 12:30 BST and will take office on Tuesday after formal appointment by the Queen.

The likely PM is Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who will inherit a flagging economy with inflation at a 40-year high, but has vowed to help shield consumers from surging energy costs and inflation.

Truss has said that British citizens can expect £30 billion in tax cuts through an emergency Budget later this month.

There is no detail to her policies just yet, but any cost-of-living support, will temporarily scrap green levies on energy bills and reverse the rise in National Insurance introduced during Boris Johnson's tenure.

Whether further help would target the neediest or everyone, will be determined at a later time after full planning is done.

All parties have called on the government to freeze energy prices through multi-billion-pound subsidies: the Greens have called for a potential nationalisation of the UK's five biggest suppliers.

Truss did not rule out a freeze on Sunday but has previously described the idea as a "sticking plaster" and argues more needs to be done to help the UK boost its domestic sources of energy.

What’s next in Oz

According to Wealth Within founder and chief analyst Dale Gillham, “Last week, the All Ordinaries Index continued to fall away as expected and confirmed its second consecutive week down with the index falling over 3% so far. As mentioned previously, my preference was for the market to fall for at least another one or two weeks before rising again.

"If it does continue to fall into this week, I believe it will likely find support around 7000 points. That said, it is possible the market will continue down for a few more weeks before finding support but I believe this is less likely.

“Right now, investors would be wise to exit any stocks that trigger a sell and wait out the fall before buying again. Too many get caught out trying to buy a bargain only to suffer further falls as they have bought too early. Again, while I am expecting the market to fall in the short term, I believe it will find support soon and be overall bullish for the remainder of this year.”

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