The stage may be finally set for the RBA to deploy its first rate cut as the Australian economy notched just a 0.2% increase to seasonally adjusted GDP in the June quarter and just 1.5% in the 23-24 financial year.
“The Australian economy grew for the 11th consecutive quarter, although growth slowed over the 2023-24 financial year,” ABS head of national accounts Katherine Keenan said.
“Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period, annual financial year economic growth was the lowest since 1991-92 – the year that included the gradual recovery from the 1991 recession."
The market responded by taking a 1.91% nosedive throughout the day.
“Economic growth remained meagre in Q2 and was the first sub-1% (0.97% y/y) annual rise since 1991,” State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Advisors APAC economist Krishna Bhimavarapu said.
“On a per-capita basis, GDP growth moved deeper into negative territory (-1.5% y/y, 6th negative print).
“This is perhaps the clearest indication yet that policy is restrictive enough in Australia. This data should at the very least lead the RBA to make a dovish pivot, considering how uncertain they were during the last meeting.
“We still look for the first rate cut in November as headline CPI could ease to around 3% in Q3.”
As for the market itself, the sectors have collectively taken a beating to fall between 0.68% and 2.96%.
Energy (-2.74%), Info Tech (-2.52%) and Materials (-2.96%) bore the brunt.
Within the big caps of those sectors, the losses were felt worst by Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) Ltd (-5.67%), NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) Ltd (-3.50%) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX:ASX:FMG) (-8.36%).
The bottom performing stocks on the ASX200 were uranium company Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX:DYL) (-8.60%) and Fortescue.
Overall, the index has fallen 1.52% over the last five days and sits 2.45% below its 52-week high.
Market true to form with September dip
“September has started true to form with stocks falling and price action across global markets exhibiting the hallmarks of an unfolding growth scare,” writes Capital.com senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda, commenting on market movements for this first week of the month.
“Although the move trailed the data slightly, the ISM Manufacturing number revealed weakening demand, mostly through softer inventories and output.
“The employment sub-index improved, oddly prices jumped with the word stagflation thrown (prematurely) around in the markets.
“Despite tech leading the sell-off on Wall Street, the most damning price signals were in FX and commodity markets.
“The Japanese Yen rallied, simultaneously as an anti-growth trade and following hawkish commentary from Governor Ueda yesterday.
“The Australian Dollar plunged more than 1% – with a part of that story yesterday’s weak current account data – and oil tumbling over 4% and to an eight-month low, compounded by news that Libya would resume production and exports.
“The market will now move one step at a time as it digests the incoming US data, with a keen eye on the horizon and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.”
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