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FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX at 12-month lows on Middle East conflict worries; positive retail sales growth ahead of RBA decision

Published 30/10/2023, 02:15 pm
© Reuters FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX at 12-month lows on Middle East conflict worries; positive retail sales growth ahead of RBA decision
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The ASX 200 has fallen to 12-month lows, sliding below the 6,800 level on fears the Israel-Hamas conflict will intensify and expand regionally.

The benchmark index lost 0.73% to end the day at 6,777, bringing its October performance to -3.87%.

IGO Ltd led the losses today after saying that lower lithium prices will hit its current quarter sales, sending the stock down 9.3% to $9.66. However the broader materials sector finished slightly higher. Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) climbed 0.81%, BHP (ASX:BHP) gained 0.09% and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) added 0.09%.

Energy stocks ended down 2.5% today, as Brent crude oil prices sank. Financials and Consumer Staples also felt the pain, each falling by at least 1%.

Gold stocks outperformed - Newmont Corp gained 3.18% and Evolution Mining added 0.97%.

Retail spending comes in better than expected

Adding to last week’s stronger than expected inflation data, retail sales today came in better than expected for September, lifting 0.9% from a month earlier according to the ABS and far exceeding economists’ estimates for a 0.3% lift as department stores and household goods sales picked up.

This marks the final major economic data set before the RBA’s upcoming interest rate decision next Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.25 percentage point hike to 4.35%. Today’s September sales figures will likely boost the RBA’s confidence that the economy can withstand further interest rate increases ahead of next week’s decision.

ABS head of retail statistics Ben Dorber said: “The warmer-than-usual start to spring lifted turnover at department stores, household goods and clothing retailers, with more spending on hardware, gardening and clothing items.

“Also adding a boost to turnover in household goods retailing was the release of a new iPhone model.”

The RBA is now widely expected to raise interest rates at its November 7 meeting after last week’s third-quarter CPI came in higher than expected. RBA governor Michele Bullock has said policymakers “will not hesitate” to tighten further if there were a material upside to inflation outlook.

Also for the RBA to consider is the anticipated inflation pressure from the anticipated arrival of over 500,000 migrants over the coming year. The surge in migration is expected to push up the price of rentals and total consumer spending.

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