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FIVE at FIVE AU: 76% of small businesses to hit cash flow crisis before FY24; ASX remains vulnerable to further losses

Published 27/09/2022, 03:59 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: 76% of small businesses to hit cash flow crisis before FY24; ASX remains vulnerable to further losses
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The ASX200 gained 0.35% or 22.50 points to 6,491.90 today, bucking the Nasdaq’s downward trend despite setting a new 50-day low.

The index has lost 4.62% over the last five days and 12.08% over the last 52 weeks.

Despite the upward trajectory of the market, only Energy (+1.84%) and Materials (+2.43%) made significant gains, with the rest of the sectors fairly flat except for Real Estate, which shed 2.09%.

It was also a bad day for resources, with only tin managing to remain in the green on a 1.96% gain as all other commodities fell.

Nickel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude took the biggest hits, shedding 3.98% and 3.89% respectively.

The top performing stocks in the ASX200 index were Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) up 6.83% and Pilbara Minerals up 6.32%.

Whitehaven recently – and controversially – received approval for a mine expansion at its namesake coal mine but shares have been volatile in line with coal pricing.

Just yesterday the company shed 9.67%, having hit a record high of $9.33 a share on September 23.

Pilbara Minerals, on the other hand, has been enjoying a strong upward trajectory despite a bear market, gaining 34% in the last 30 days. Analysts point to strong financial fundamentals and high future demand for lithium as reasons for the hike.

What's making news

76% of small businesses expect cash flow crisis before FY24

New research commissioned by Small Business Loans Australia has revealed that three in four small businesses expect to reach a cash flow crisis before the 2024 financial year, impacted by fast-growing interest rates and inflation.

The data comes from a survey of an independent panel of 253 Australian small and medium business owners and decision makers – 68% were micro-businesses, 18% small businesses and 14% medium-sized businesses.

Concerningly, the survey found that 44% of respondents don’t currently have a plan in place to address potential cash flow issues.

Collecting payment and attracting sales were the most pressing problems for these companies, with 30% pointing to payment issues, 26% highlighting lower sales opportunities and 20% saying both issues were likely to impact their cash flow.

“As Australian businesses continue to face the repercussions of the last two years, a significant proportion will have challenges, particularly without a savings buffer or strategy to help meet their expenses,” Small Business Loans Australia founder Alon Rajic said.

“One of the most effective ways to invest in, and protect, a business is to grow customers and sales – especially acquiring customers who themselves have healthy incomes and good cash flow.

“This could be a good time for small businesses to develop a strategy to not only survive but to grow.

“Businesses often reduce costs when external conditions impact them, but then de-prioritise driving new sales. However, there are opportunities even in tough conditions.

“Growth often requires investment. Improving your product or service offering, getting in front of new customers, and customer loyalty will be important for many businesses who want to succeed in these times.

“For most, it will require financing.”

Rajic suggests seeking advice from a licensed financial advisor before committing to any finance deals, citing high-interest rates as a potential pitfall.

ASX remains vulnerable in downward trend

Capital.com’s head of trading Brian Gould has offered some words of caution for the ASX, which he expects will continue a downward trend for some time.

“The ASX200 is re-testing three-month lows but remains above the lows put in at 6,433 on June 20,” Gould said.

“Geopolitics are playing a big role in trader sentiment presently, with the double-whammy of escalating language out of Moscow combined with corporate concerns over Chinese aggression toward Taiwan, both weighing on the minds of investors.

“With an absence of high impact economic data releases out of Australia this week — and limited anticipated impact from new home sales and personal spending out of the US— traders will be focused on the news flow to drive behaviour.

“Growing anticipation of a 50 basis point rate hike in Australia is building, with futures pricing in that possibility at above 80%.

“As such, there is probably sufficient amounts of bad news baked into equity markets locally, so it would take an external surprise from international markets to drag the index lower through that buying resistance that’s present on the ASX at around 6,400.

“Nonetheless, a downward medium-term trend channel is established and the index will remain vulnerable unless we can see a rally back to 7,000 points and beyond.”

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