Join +750K new investors every month who copy stock picks from billionaire's portfoliosSign Up Free

Fitch Affirms Pinnacle Series Trust 2014-SST 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable

Published 06/04/2020, 06:13 pm
Updated 06/04/2020, 06:18 pm
© Reuters.
PRU
-
GNW
-

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10117303 Fitch Ratings-Sydney-April 06: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the ratings of Pinnacle Series Trust 2014-SST's Class A notes. The transaction is a securitisation of first-ranking prime Australian residential mortgages originated by Police Nurses Limited (PN), trading as PN Bank. The notes are issued by BNY Trust Company of Australia Limited as trustee of the Pinnacle Series Trust 2014-SST. The social and market disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic and related containment measures have not negatively affected the ratings, because there is sufficient credit enhancement (CE) to Fitch's base case scenario of the impact and adequate liquidity protection to support the current ratings. Pinnacle Series Trust 2014-SST ----A AU3FN0022190; Long Term Rating; Affirmed; AAAsf; RO:Sta KEY RATING DRIVERS Coronavirus-Related Economic Shock: Fitch has made assumptions about the spread of the coronavirus and the economic impact of the related containment measures. As a base-case (most likely) scenario, Fitch assumes a global recession in 1H20 driven by sharp economic contractions in major economies with a rapid spike in unemployment, followed by a recovery that begins in 3Q20 as the health crisis subsides. As a downside (sensitivity) scenario in the Rating Sensitivities section below, Fitch takes into consideration a more severe and prolonged period of stress delaying any meaningful recovery to beyond 2021. Coronavirus-Related Impact: The measures put in place to reduce the spread of the virus are affecting Australia's economy, with many businesses temporarily shut down with little or no income. We expect these measures to affect the performance of mortgages, but we do not expect a rating impact on the 'AAAsf' rated notes in this transaction. This is because the 'AAAsf' can absorb Fitch's base case scenario of the coronavirus-related impacts above and in addition, the rated notes have subordination that is at least 1.3x greater than the 'AAAsf' portfolio loss. Liquidity Risk from Payment Holidays: We have reviewed the ability of the transaction to survive a significant proportion of borrowers taking a payment holiday. The transaction benefits from a liquidity reserve sized at 1.5% of the asset balance and is sufficient to cover more than eight months of required payments at the current bank-bill spot rate should there be no principal or interest collections. In the event there is not 100% take-up of payment holiday, the transaction can also use any principal payments received to pay interest. Operational Risk: PN Bank is an authorised deposit-taking institution, as defined by the Australian Prudential (LON:PRU) Regulation Authority. Fitch undertook an onsite operational review and found that the operations of the originator and servicer were in line with other comparative conforming lenders. The collections and servicing activities have not been disrupted due to the coronavirus outbreak as staff work remotely and are able to access the bank branches and the disaster recovery site, if needed. Asset Analysis: The transaction has a ten-year substitution period, of which about four are remaining. Therefore, Fitch's analysis is based on a portfolio stressed to documented portfolio parameters. The 'AAAsf' weighted-average (WA) foreclosure frequency of 18.0% is driven by the WA unindexed loan/value ratio (LVR) of 66.2% and, under Fitch's methodology, investment loans of 30.3%. The 'AAAsf' lenders' mortgage insurance (LMI) dependent WA recovery rate of 62.2% is driven by the portfolio's WA indexed scheduled LVR of 73.6%, 10.0% of the pool benefiting from LMI and the portfolio 'AAAsf' WA market value decline of 51.9%. The 30+ day arrears (excluding loans with a hardship status that are not in arrears) were 0.52% as of end-February 2020, lower than the Fitch 4Q19 Dinkum RMBS Index of 1.06%. The transaction has experienced no losses since closing. LMI cover is provided by Genworth Financial (NYSE:GNW) Mortgage Insurance Pty Limited (Insurer Financial Strength Rating: A+/Negative) and QBE Lenders' Mortgage Insurance Limited (Insurer Financial Strength Rating: A+/Stable). Liability Analysis: Cash flow analysis was not performed for the transaction, in accordance with Fitch's criteria, as the transaction is still within its revolving period, cash-flow distributions have been within Fitch's expectations since the last cash-flow model analysis and there have been no material changes to cash-flow assumptions since the last cash-flow model analysis. Macroeconomic Factors: Fitch expects mortgage performance to deteriorate in the near term, but to continue to support the Stable Outlook for the 'AAAsf' notes. Fitch currently forecasts Australia's GDP to shrink 2.2% in 2020 with unemployment rising to 7.7%. This is partially offset by a low official cash rate of 0.25% and the application of both central bank and government stimulus measures. In the medium term, Fitch expects GDP growth to bounce back to 2.9% in 2021 and the unemployment rate to fall to 6.9%. The Stable Outlook is based on the notes' ability to withstand the sensitivity to higher defaults stemming from the pandemic. RATING SENSITIVITIES The transaction is still in its substitution period. Fitch used a stressed portfolio to the specific portfolio limits for the transaction as specified in the transaction documents. Coronavirus Downside Scenario Sensitivity Fitch has added a coronavirus downside sensitivity analysis that contemplates a more severe and prolonged economic stress caused by a re-emergence of infections in the major economies, delaying any meaningful recovery to beyond 2021. The 'AAAsf' rated notes have subordination that is at least 1.3x greater than the 'AAAsf' portfolio loss using the stressed portfolio, and the actual portfolio is well within the stressed portfolio parameters. Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade: The Class A notes are rated 'AAAsf', which is the highest level on Fitch's scale. The rating cannot be upgraded. Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade: Downgrades may occur if the build-up of the notes CE following amortisation does not compensate for a worse loss expectation than we anticipate due to unexpected high levels of defaults and portfolio deterioration. The transaction structure supports a LMI-independent rating for classes A notes. LMI is not required to support the rating due to the level of credit support provided by the lower notes. For more information on initial rating sensitivities please refer to the press release at closing of the transaction, which can be accessed by clicking on the link: www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-assigns-ratings-to-pinnac le-series-trust-2014-sst-24-02-2014 Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario Ratings of structured finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579. USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10 Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action. DATA ADEQUACY Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pools and the transactions. There were no findings that were material to this analysis. Prior to the transaction closing, Fitch did not review the results of a third-party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information. As part of its ongoing monitoring, Fitch conducted a file review of a small targeted sample of PN Bank's origination files and found the information contained in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the originator's policies and practices and the other information provided to the agency about the asset portfolio. Overall, Fitch's assessment of the asset pool information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis, according to its applicable rating methodologies, indicates that it is adequately reliable. SOURCES OF INFORMATION The information below was used in the analysis: issuer and servicer reports as of the interest payment date in March 2020 and provided by PN Bank; loan level data dated end-January were used to run the relevant model and the relevant data sources were PN Bank; and discussions and updates from PN Bank in February and March 2020. REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. The issuer has informed Fitch that not all relevant underlying information used in the analysis of the rated notes is public. ESG Considerations ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity(ies). For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg. Contacts: Surveillance Rating Analyst Sambit Agasti, Associate Director +61 2 8256 0337 Fitch Australia Pty Ltd Level 15 77 King Street Sydney NSW 2000 Committee Chairperson Natasha Vojvodic, Senior Director +61 2 8256 0350

Media Relations: Peter Hoflich, Singapore, Tel: +65 6796 7229, Email: peter.hoflich@thefitchgroup.com; Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 6796 7234, Email: leslie.tan@thefitchgroup.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable Criteria APAC Residential Mortgage Rating Criteria (pub. 04 Jun 2019) (including rating assumption sensitivity) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10076316 Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 02 May 2019) (including rating assumption sensitivity) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10073280 RMBS Lenders' Mortgage Insurance Rating Criteria (pub. 12 Mar 2020) (including rating assumption sensitivity) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10110807 Structured Finance and Covered Bonds Counterparty Rating Criteria (pub. 29 Jan 2020) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10108544 Applicable Model Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s). ResiGlobal Model: Australia, v1.59.3 1-https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/952504 Additional Disclosures Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form https://www.fitchratings.com/site/dodd-frank-disclosure/10116850 Solicitation Status https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10116850#solicitation Endorsement Status https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10116850#endorsement_status Endorsement Policy https://www.fitchratings.com/regulatory ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, THE FOLLOWING https://www.fitchratings.com/site/dam/jcr:6b03c4cd-611d-47ec-b8f1-183c01b51b08/R ating%20Definitions%20-%203%20May%202019%20v3%206-11-19.pdf DETAILS FITCH'S RATING DEFINITIONS FOR EACH RATING SCALE AND RATING CATEGORIES, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS RELATING TO DEFAULT. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. DIRECTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS RELEVANT INTERESTS ARE AVAILABLE AT HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/SITE/REGULATORY. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. Copyright © 2020 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch's factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch's ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed. The information in this report is provided "as is" without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 Fitch Ratings, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (the "NRSRO"). While certain of the NRSRO's credit rating subsidiaries are listed on Item 3 of Form NRSRO and as such are authorized to issue credit ratings on behalf of the NRSRO (see https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory), other credit rating subsidiaries are not listed on Form NRSRO (the "non-NRSROs") and therefore credit ratings issued by those subsidiaries are not issued on behalf of the NRSRO. However, non-NRSRO personnel may participate in determining credit ratings issued by or on behalf of the NRSRO.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.