SpaceX, the private space exploration company led by Elon Musk, is experiencing significant growth and may initiate an Initial Public Offering (IPO) as early as next year or in 2026, according to Vijay Marolia, the chief investment officer of Regal Point Capital.
Regal, which focuses on private equity and hedge funds, holds SpaceX shares through Baron’s Focused Growth Fund BFGFX.
Pioneering in reusable rocket technology, SpaceX aims to reduce costs and transform the space industry. It has established a launch frequency and is expected to be instrumental in upcoming moon and Mars missions.
IPO after US elections
Marolia suggests that SpaceX might delay its IPO decision until after the 2024 election, with 2025 being a likely time for a decision, contingent on the political climate.
“I would say that 2025 is the bet. That’s when we know who is going to run the country for the next four years. … I think that if we know who is going to be in the White House, then that spreadsheet is ready to send,” Mariola told MarketWatch.
There's been talk of a potential spinoff of Starlink, SpaceX's satellite-internet constellation. However, Musk has seemingly ruled out a Starlink spinoff for this year, indicating it might occur post-IPO, possibly closer to the Mars mission.
Mission to Mars
Last year, Musk projected SpaceX could achieve an uncrewed Mars landing by 2027. Marolia also pointed out that SpaceX's Starshield, a secure satellite network for governments, could be a candidate for an IPO or private spinoff, though he remains cautious about predicting outcomes due to geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties.
SpaceX was reported to be aiming for a $150 billion valuation through a new share sale, as per The Wall Street Journal. The company recently initiated 2024 activities by launching Starlink satellites, including the first batch providing direct-to-cell services. This launch continues SpaceX's busy schedule, following a record 96 Falcon launches in 2023.
In the midst of these developments, SpaceX faces a complaint from the National Labor Relations Board over allegations of wrongful termination of employees who raised workplace concerns. SpaceX has not yet responded to these allegations.
SpaceX is currently valued at around US$175 billion in the private market.