TD Cowen raised its price target on Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) to $500.00 from $430.00 while maintaining an Outperform after the recent confirmatory data on tirzepatide in obesity and donanemab in Alzheimer's, and Q1 results.
Mounjaro/Tirzepatide forecasts are expected to increase following the recently announced positive results from SURMOUNT 2, the confirmatory trial in obesity. Lilly is currently in the process of filing this claim with a Priority Review Voucher, which should lead to U.S. approval by fiscal 2023. Consequently, TD Cowen revised its Mounjaro/Tirzepatide forecasts upwards: $900 million to $3.3 billion in 2023, $1.25B to $6.1B in 2024, and $1.23B to $15.3B (compared to consensus of $15.4B) in 2027.
Donanemab projections have been increased following the recently announced positive results from TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2, the confirmatory trial in Alzheimer's Disease. Lilly is currently in the process of filing for approval, which is expected to lead to approval in 2024. As a result, TD Cowen raised its donanemab forecasts by $250M to reach $500M in 2024, and by $2B to reach $3B (compared to the consensus of $2.2B) in 2027.
TD Cowen updated its Lilly model and raised estimates. Their EPS estimates increased by $0.15 to $8.70 (versus guidance of $8.65-$8.85 and consensus of $8.71) in 2023, by $0.45 to $11.10 (versus consensus of $12.17) in 2024, and by $1.65 to $20.60 (versus consensus of $23.38) in 2027.