Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev lowered the price target on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) to $150.00 per share, down from $190.00 on continued crypto share losses.
The analyst argues that Crypto.com, and other fast-growing crypto exchanges, are gaining market share at the expense of Coinbase. This makes Dolev “increasingly worried about looming retail pricing pressure and the long-term sustainability of COIN's business model.”
“We found that COIN's share has fallen from a peak of 12% in the fall of 2021 to just 8% currently, with a steep drop in between March and April. We believe that had COIN not added as many tokens in 4Q, the same-store share of volume per token may have been even worse. As a reminder, in 2021 COIN added trading for 95 new tokens, 36 of which were added in 4Q alone (i.e. 38% of the newly added tokens),” Dolev said in a client note.
The analyst adds that Crypto.com’s aggressive marketing campaign (naming rights to the home arena of the NBA's Los Angeles Lakers, partnerships with UFC and LeBron James, Super Bowl ads, etc) is paying dividends as its volumes are now on par with Coinbase.
The lowered price target reflects 2022 revenue estimates that now stand at $6.8 billion from $7.0 billion previously.
Coinbase stock price is up nearly 2% today.
By Senad Karaahmetovic