Deutsche Bank analysts noted that companies giving significant attention to artificial intelligence (AI) in their corporate earnings calls this year have generally performed worse than the broader market.
The bank’s analysis of a sample of 77 Russell 3000 stocks reveals a -29% correlation between the total returns of these stocks since the first quarter and the intensity of AI discussions during the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 reporting seasons.
This negative correlation suggests that companies emphasizing AI have experienced poorer stock performance.
The intensity of AI mentions in earnings calls demonstrates an inverse correlation with these firms' return on invested capital (ROIC) and EBIT margin over the last 12 months. In other words, companies that discuss AI more tend to have lower ROIC and EBIT margins.
This relationship is, in part, due to AI's greater significance for smaller and less profitable companies, according to the analysts.
The analysts also point out that AI has not been the primary driver of tech markets across various asset classes this year.
While semiconductor stocks initially saw substantial gains as key beneficiaries of widespread AI adoption, the difference in returns between semiconductor stocks and software peers has diminished and is now considered "relatively non-meaningful."