Investing.com - Australian shares are expected to see an increase on Monday as investors anxiously await fresh inflation data and potential changes in oil production. These factors will significantly influence their predictions regarding further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank.
ASX 200 Futures indicate a 0.2% rise at the opening, paving the way for a robust recovery in November. The S&P/ASX 200 is on track for its largest monthly surge since January, with a 3.8% increase.
In contrast to the US, where the S&P 500 has seen a 19% increase year-to-date and a 37% rise for the Nasdaq, Australian shares have merely returned to their beginning-of-year levels.
Inflation levels in most developed nations are lower than in Australia, largely due to central banks initiating interest rate hikes earlier than the Reserve Bank of Australia.
On Wednesday, the October monthly consumer price index will provide investors with a snapshot of price growth progress. However, this report offers only a partial image, as several categories, including services that are a significant concern for the RBA, are not surveyed.
The consensus is for the CPI to rise 5.2% year-on-year, following a 5.6% increase in September. Westpac anticipates that falling fuel prices will somewhat counterbalance a modest rise in electricity prices as government rebates start to fade.
Retail sales data will also be in focus, with economists forecasting a 0.2% rise in October, following a robust 0.9% increase in September.
Internationally, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia (collectively known as OPEC+), will discuss production cuts for 2024 on Thursday. This comes after last week's policy meeting was postponed due to disagreements among members over 2024 output targets.
Brent crude declined to $US80.58 a barrel on Friday, down from nearly $US98 in late September, as the partial release of hostages in Gaza eased investor concerns about the risk of a broader conflict.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar reached a three-month high, touching US65.90¢, a level last seen on August 10. If sustained, its 3.9% leap in November would mark the best month in a year.