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Anglo American story in its first chapter - all eyes are on Rio Tinto

Published 26/04/2024, 11:36 pm
© Reuters.  Anglo American story in its first chapter - all eyes are on Rio Tinto

It will be interesting to see if BHP (ASX:BHP) Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) returns with a juiced-up bid for Anglo American (JO:AGLJ) PLC (LSE:AAL) in the coming days or whether a rival bidder emerges.

Anglo earlier batted back BHP's £31 billion all-paper deal, saying it significantly undervalues its business while condemning the transaction as 'complex' and 'uncertain'.

When a deal like this is on the go, the weekend press tends to be particularly well-briefed, with City spinners and bankers using the media almost as a sounding board.

A story 'dropped' to the FT or Sunday Times that doesn't play well with the Square (NYSE:SQ) Mile is quickly forgotten by Monday morning, while the less outlandish ideas are given time to ferment in the minds of London's power brokers.

All eyes will inevitably be on what Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) PLC does or doesn't do next.

City broker Liberum points out that Rio is seen as a company that prefers to develop its own projects rather than purchasing others.

This stance is supported by statements from the company's management and board.

However, Anglo's travails won't have gone unnoticed at Rio's offices in London and Melbourne.

It may decide to shelve its disciplined approach in favour of becoming a white knight under the current scenario, particularly given the rather paltry offer tabled by BHP.

Rio might present a more straightforward proposal than BHP's, without needing prior restructuring, which could be seen as a better option.

Remember, BHP wants Anglo to offload Amplats and the Kumba iron ore operation before the transaction goes ahead. De Beers, meanwhile, would also go under the microscope.

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Rio is unlikely to take this path if were to bid, and according to Liberum, it has an interest in diamonds and isn't involved in a competing fertiliser project like BHP, which could give it an advantage.

BHP's offer valued Anglo at £25.08 a share, which JP Morgan rather inelegantly described as 'lacking a change of control premia'.

It also said the 'interloper risk' was high. In plain language, JPM expects another bidder will emerge. At £1.42 above the offer, the share price is flagging this as a distinct possibility.

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