To meet a 2050 net-zero emissions target Australia must drastically increase its renewable energy capacity, says the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
New renewable and transmission capacity is needed to meet rising electricity demand, which is expected to nearly double by 2050 while homes and businesses move away from carbon-emitting fuels.
According to the energy market operator, Australia must install 16 times its current battery and pumped hydro capacity and expand large-scale wind and solar generation six-fold to achieve the target.
AEMO’s biennial road map outlines the extensive transition required, including the retirement of coal by 2035 and the exit of the last traditional power station by 2038.
This shift will necessitate rapid development of alternative energy sources to ensure reliable supply as electricity demand soars due to increased household and business electrification.
Labor wants 82% renewable energy by 2030
Further, to achieve Labor’s 2030 goal of 82% renewable energy, AEMO says 55 gigawatts (GW) of new wind and solar generation is needed — more than double the existing 22GW.
Annually, that requires an additional 6GW of renewable capacity, double the current 3GW to 4GW rate. Currently, Australia’s coal power fleet produces 21GW.
Driving the transition to 2030 will be wind power, complemented by rooftop solar installations. AEMO projects that by 2050, 58GW of large-scale solar and 69GW of wind power will be necessary.
The Federal Government is under pressure to meet its 2030 targets, aiming to reduce emissions by 43%.
Yet of the 79 new energy projects considered by AEMO, 15 are facing delays, representing nearly 3.5GW of capacity. To address this, Labor plans to underwrite 32GW of renewable energy and storage capacity, with 24GW of projects seeking to join the scheme.
The scheme guarantees a minimum return on new solar and wind projects, compensating developers if wholesale prices fall below an agreed threshold.
Increase in rooftop solar capacity needed
AEMO’s report highlights the need for a quadruple increase in rooftop solar capacity, aiming for 86GW by 2050, up from the current 21GW. Additionally, 22GW of storage capacity is required to counter renewable droughts, primarily through batteries, aside from Snowy Hydro 2.0. Currently, Australia has 3GW of storage capacity.
AEMO also estimates 10,000 kilometres of high-voltage transmission lines are needed by 2050 to support the transition, as transmission lines have become a major bottleneck for new large-scale capacity, with much of the existing infrastructure fully utilised.