Investing.com - Gold’s hold on $1,900 looks secure for now.
The latest U.S. print on inflation came in well below prior numbers and a tad softer than most economists expected on Wednesday, signaling the Fed would be less aggressive with tightening monetary policy to curb price growth, even if the central bank stayed on the course of its rate hikes.
The front-month August gold contract on New York’s Comex settled at $1,961.70 an ounce, up $24.60 or 1.3%. The session high of $1,965.05 compared with the three-month bottom of $1,900.60 struck a week ago.
The spot price of gold, which reflects physical trades in bullion and is more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at $1,957.12 by 15:27 ET (19:27 GMT). The intraday high of $1,959.68 contrasted with last week’s three-month low of $1,893.01.
“As long as the spot price maintains stability above the $1,945-$1,940 demand zone, we can expect further advances towards the next leg higher of $1,975 to $1985,” said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com.
Gold’s run-up came as the dollar tumbled to a 15-month low after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index grew by just 3.0% in the year to June, expanding at its slowest pace in more than two years. Annual CPI was at 4.0% in May.
But while most celebrated the significant cooling of the CPI from its four-decade high of 9% per annum a year ago, some warned that the Fed had more work to do in returning inflation to its long-held target of just 2%.
That was understandable as Core CPI, measured by excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for May and was still up 4.8% from a year ago — more than double the Fed’s 2% target. That was an indication that while price pressures had eased in general, consumers were probably paying more than they should for everything, from what they stock in their refrigerator to what they put in the tank of their car.
“Inflation is still too high,” Tom Barkin, Fed president for the region of Richmond, said at an event that began just after the release of the CPI data. “The demand seems to be settling down, but [the Fed] still looking to be convinced that will feed through to inflation. Demand remains elevated at the same time supply is constrained, the process of getting back to balance has been slow.”
Fed’s Barkin says not time yet to stop rate hikes
Barkin also indicated that the Fed, which paused rate hikes in June to study its impact, will resume monetary tightening to get inflation back to its target. The central bank’s policy-makers will make their next decision on rates on July 26. Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool assigned a 94% probability of the central bank doing a 0.25% hike at its July policy meeting.
The Fed’s tolerance for inflation is just 2% per annum. In response to the runaway price growth caused by relief spending related to the coronavirus pandemic, the central bank has raised interest rates 10 times in March 2022, adding 5% to rates from a previous 0.25%.
“We are comfortable doing more with policy if incoming data does not confirm inflation will return to target,” Barkin said on Wednesday. “Backing off too soon would require the Fed to do even more [later]. It is still a question whether inflation can settle while the labor market remains as strong as it is.”
If talk of extended Fed action begins propping the dollar up again, expect gold to return to the $1,930s — though testing or breaking below $1,900 could be difficult, said Dixit.
“A pull back to the demand zone will attract a lot more buyers this time, that’s why,” he added.