🥇 First rule of investing? Know when to save! Up to 55% off InvestingPro before BLACK FRIDAYCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Dollar climbs as risk of long wait in U.S. election outcome looms

Published 04/11/2020, 05:13 pm
Updated 04/11/2020, 05:18 pm
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
USD/CAD
-
BARC
-
DBKGn
-
SOGN
-
DX
-
DXY
-
USD/CNH
-

* Dollar jumps as U.S. presidential race neck-and-neck

* Mexican peso, Chinese yuan hit hardest on trade war worries

* Trump projected to win Florida, Ohio; Rust Belt in focus

* Implied volatilities ease despite prospect of delay in poll outcome

By Hideyuki Sano and Eimi Yamamitsu

TOKYO, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar jumped and risk-sensitive currencies weakened on Wednesday, as early results in the U.S. presidential election showed a very tight race, prompting a wind-back of bets on a victory by Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

President Donald Trump was leading in key battleground states including Florida and Ohio, while investors looked to whether he can retain Rust Belt states -- Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- that sent Trump to the White House in 2016. is clearly not a "blue wave" some people have been talking about," said Shinichiro Kadota, senior currency strategist at Barclays (LON:BARC), referring to a scenario where Democrats will handily win the White House as well as the control of both chambers of Congress.

(For multimedia U.S. election coverage, click: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-election2020 )

The rising likelihood of Trump's re-election hurts the currencies that have been hit hardest by Trump's trade policies, such as the Mexican peso and the Chinese yuan.

The Mexican peso fell almost 4% at one point and last traded at 21.435 per dollar MXN=D4 , down about 1.7% while the offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.4% to 6.7362 to the dollar CNH= , hitting a one-month low.

Among major currencies, the euro fell as much as 1% to a low not seen since late July and last stood at $1.1665 EUR= , down 0.45% on day.

The Australian dollar lost 0.6% to $0.7120 AUD=D4 while the British pound dropped 0.5% to $1.2983 GBP=D4 . The Canadian dollar fell 0.7% to C$1.3225 per U.S. unit CAD=D4 . All of them sank more than one percent at one point.

"I think the odds of a clean sweep are diminishing, almost by the minute. That reduces the possibility, or the likelihood at least of a large stimulus programme being agreed to in the first days of a Biden administration," said Matt Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual in Sydney.

The Japanese yen also gave up 0.35% to 104.87 per dollar JPY= .

The dollar index measuring the greenback against a basket of currencies .DXY gained 0.3% to 93.82.

Investors were increasingly braced for the possibility that the election results may not become clear on Wednesday, with markets hedging against the risk of a contested election or a potentially drawn out process as mail in ballots were counted.

"I don't think markets at this point are pricing in a victory of Trump or Biden. We just have to wait for the results," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN) in Tokyo.

"A contested election probably takes all of the SPX, bond yields and the USD (at least versus majors) down meaningfully," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) in New York.

Still, implied volatilities on most major currency pairs have been relatively stable, suggesting investors expect markets to be able to take a protracted period of vote counting in their stride.

One-month eudo/dollar volatility EUR1MO= dropped to 7.90% from 8.29% on Tuesday while the dollar/yen volatility JPY1MO= dropped to 7.20% from 7.75%.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Trump and U.S. dollar

https://tmsnrt.rs/3kTK3tk USD, MX peso, Chinese yuan on election night

https://tmsnrt.rs/2I4KWkd

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.