💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

FOREX-Safe havens in play as oil falls, China seeks stable yuan

Published 12/01/2016, 08:28 pm
Updated 12/01/2016, 08:30 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Safe havens in play as oil falls, China seeks stable yuan
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
AUD/USD
-
NZD/USD
-
USD/CNY
-
LCO
-
CL
-

* China sets another firm mid-point for yuan

* Overnight interest rates in Hong Kong touch 94 percent

* Norwegian crown, Canadian dollar hammered by falling oil

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Currency investors sought the security of the yen over higher-risk plays like the Australian and New Zealand dollars on Tuesday, judging a second day of stability for the yuan was not the end of a depreciation that has hit global markets.

With attention firmly fixed on China and a fall in oil prices to $30 a barrel, the euro and Swiss franc both gained around a third of a percent against the dollar while the Aussie and kiwi fell half a percent.

Yuan offshore rates CNH=D3 were little changed, having earlier converged with the officially controlled onshore market CNY= following moves by Beijing to drive implied overnight interest rates in Hong Kong to as high as 94 percent. investors, bankers and corporate sellers have rounded on the yuan since late December and it has taken action by Beijing described by some dealers as "nuclear" to stabilise the currency.

Chris Morrison, head of strategy with London-based hedge fund Omni, has been betting against the yuan since the start of 2014.

"The interest in this trade has just risen exponentially. I have received 50 emails per day on the RMB (yuan) in the last week," he said.

"We saw that as a short-term reason to reduce our position size. There will be a consolidation...But we remain very committed to the trade."

Several banks have cut their forecasts for the yuan to around 7 per dollar by the end of this year, compared with 6.58 on Tuesday.

"It's rather contingent on the dollar staying big but a 5-10 percent depreciation per year for two or three years seems entirely possible," said Richard Benson, co-head of portfolio investment with currency managers Millennium Global in London.

A fall in oil prices to $30 a barrel also hammered the currencies of producers, driving the Canadian dollar to a 13-year low of C$1.4250 per U.S. dollar and the Norwegian crown to a 13-month low of 9.6925 per euro.

Crude oil futures have fallen almost 20 percent since the beginning of the year, and both U.S. crude CLc1 and global benchmark Brent LCOc1 were down around 2 percent on Tuesday. O/R

The dollar slipped about 0.3 percent to 117.47 yen JPY= , after plumbing a low of 116.70 on Monday, its weakest since Aug. 24. The euro added about 0.2 percent to $1.0876 EUR= .

"Interest rate differentials don't mean anything at the moment. Risk sentiment, oil prices, and China - people are just focusing on that now," said Kaneo Ogino, director at foreign exchange research firm Global-info Co in Tokyo.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.