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FOREX-Fed fails to launch dollar higher

Published 19/11/2015, 08:41 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Fed fails to launch dollar higher
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* Dollar struggles to capitalise on signal Fed ready to move

* Yen edges to session high after BoJ holds steady as expected

* Australian and New Zealand dollars biggest gainers

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled against the euro and the yen on Thursday, with some analysts arguing that it will now take more than next month's expected action on euro zone and U.S. monetary policy to drive the greenback higher.

The Japanese yen JPY= gained almost half a percent against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept policy steady while the New Zealand and Australian dollars both gained almost 1 percent.

The action after Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes underlined the stickier performance of the dollar since a surge prompted by strong jobs numbers two weeks ago.

U.S. bond markets were impressed by a clear sign that a majority at the Fed think a rate rise in December may now be "appropriate", sending U.S. short-term interest rates higher. But the dollar stalled again above $1.06 against the euro, with some players citing profit-taking by some bigger fund players.

"That the dollar is lower signals that this outcome (of the December meeting) is increasingly discounted, particularly in the wake of recent, very heavy USD buying," said Citi's Asian head of G10 FX strategy, Todd Elmer.

"It likewise means that for the USD to head higher still, some signal on the trajectory of rates beyond the first hike may be needed."

The dollar index .DXY was down about 0.3 percent at 99.326. It hit a high of 99.853 overnight, closing in on the 12-year peak of 100.39 set in March.

There are still plenty of dollar bulls out there.

"We think only about 60 percent of the Fed hike is priced in, so there is clearly scope for the dollar to go higher if that pricing moves to 80-90 percent," Barclays (L:BARC) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos said.

"You could see this morning that people are selling the rally in euro-dollar."

The Fed funds futures curve is pricing in two hikes with a minimal chance of a third throughout 2016. Barclays, which sees the euro at $1.03 by the end of this year, expects four. The euro gained a quarter of a percent to $1.0682 by 0920 GMT.

A chorus of Fed officials also backed investors' expectations of a rate rise, with Fed President Dennis Lockhart, New York Fed President William Dudley and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester all expressing confidence that the policy tightening, when it comes, will be implemented smoothly for markets.

"It seems the argument has moved on from when the Fed will raise rates to how many hikes we will see in 2016," Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Ltd in Melbourne, said in a note to clients.

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