💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

FOREX-Euro resists further drop, eyes on Draghi

Published 12/11/2015, 12:20 am
Updated 12/11/2015, 12:30 am
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro resists further drop, eyes on Draghi
EUR/USD
-
AUD/USD
-
NZD/USD
-
CBKG
-
DX
-
DXY
-

* Dollar index eases after hitting fresh seven-month highs

* Euro trades back above $1.07

* U.S. holiday may weigh on trade

* China industrial output in line with forecasts, Aussie unfazed (Adds more quotes, updates prices)

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The euro held above $1.07 on Wednesday, recovering from another charge by the dollar in the previous session but still looking shaky in trade thinned out by the U.S. Veterans Day holiday.

The greenback had looked to be steaming higher again on Tuesday after a brief period of consolidation following strong U.S. jobs numbers last week which many see as making all but certain a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates next month.

But the debate this week among analysts and traders at the major banks has raised a number of potential barriers to a push past levels around $1.0450 per euro that stymied the greenback in March and April.

Chief among those is the suspicion that the renewed falls in the euro in the past week may mean there is less pressure on the European Central Bank to ease policy aggressively, as many were expecting, in December.

"There are a lot of similarities to the situation we saw in April and May," said Simon Smiles, Chief Investment Officer for Ultra-High Net Worth individual clients at giant Swiss asset manager, UBS Wealth Management.

"Not particularly on currencies but last week we saw an unwinding of all the trades that people had piled into on execptations of more QE by the ECB."

Analysts pointed to appearances by European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi as the best chance of fresh direction for the market over the next couple of days. Draghi was speaking in London on Wednesday though the topic is financial regulation and a European parliament hearing on Thursday may see him address monetary policy more directly.

"The moves today look technical more than anything but there is some dollar weakness," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX research at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) in Frankfurt.

"The news (of a Fed hike in December) is priced in basically, so its difficult to see what may be the immediate driver for another rally. What the ECB will do next month is the big unknown."

Draghi's hints last month of the prospect of cuts in the ECB's already negative interest rates and an expansion of its money-printing programme sparked a slide in the euro.

The euro last stood at $1.0712 EUR= , recovering after having slid below $1.07 for the first time in over six months overnight. The dollar index .DXY fell 0.1 percent to 99.196.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars had been the biggest movers in a subdued Asian session on currency markets, both up almost half a percent against the dollar. Commerz's Leuchtmann put that down to the greater sensitivity both have shown to broader dollar moves over the past year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's latest financial stability report warned of risks from a 27 percent surge in house prices this year in the capital Auckland, read by markets as a sign the bank might have to keep a tighter rein on policy in response.

"The kiwi jumped on these headlines as the market interpreted them as less dovish," said Sue Trinh, a strategist with RBC Capital Markets.

Sterling, which has also recovered some ground after sharp falls last week, inched higher after a mixed bag of wage data and jobs numbers which at least did not worsen the broad economic outlook. By 1300 it was 0.4 percent up on the day at $1.5175. (Editing by Richard Balmforth)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.