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FOREX-Euro in crosshairs as ECB looms, giving dollar a break

Published 21/04/2016, 02:45 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro in crosshairs as ECB looms, giving dollar a break
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* Euro under pressure as investors await ECB meeting

* Dollar gets a slight reprieve as U.S. yields rise

* Rally in commodity currencies takes breather

By Lisa Twaronite and Ian Chua

TOKYO/SYDNEY, April 21 (Reuters) - The euro wavered on Thursday, well off its overnight peak as investors adjusted position ahead of a policy meeting by the European Central Bank later this session.

The ECB is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged at record lows, but President Mario Draghi is likely to drive home the case for ultra-loose monetary policy. task now for the ECB lies more along the lines of promoting the effectiveness of these new expansionary policies and assertion that the Bank can do more if needed," said Rodrigo Catril, FX strategist at National Australia Bank.

Last month, while the ECB delivered aggressive easing measures, the euro perversely rallied after Draghi said there was probably no need for more rate cuts if the latest stimulus worked.

The euro stood at $1.1293 EUR= , compared with $1.1358 in Asian trading on Wednesday and well below its overnight peak of $1.1388. Against the yen, it edged down about 0.1 percent to 123.98 EURJPY= .

With three major central bank meetings looming, market participants cited a lack of market conviction on direction bets. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its policy review on April 26-27, while the Bank of Japan will meet on April 28.

BOJ officials are growing more receptive to stepping up monetary easing measures by buying more ETFs invested in shares, as weak global growth threaten the country's fragile economic recovery, sources have told Reuters. Wednesday, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank's presence in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is "not too big," signalling that topping up purchases of ETFs could be a real, near-term option. the BOJ could hold off on additional steps for now. Despite the yen's recent appreciation, a Reuters poll published on Thursday showed most Japan companies still expect to maintain or see a small increase in operating profits this financial year. no action is expected from the Fed, traders will be looking for clues in its policy statement that the central bank is preparing markets for a June interest rate hike.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has repeatedly said the Fed will be cautious in tightening policy, prompting markets to barely price in a rate hike this year.

U.S. Treasury yields have fallen as a result, though they hit three-week highs on Wednesday as oil and stocks gained, which helped the dollar. U/S

"This week has been all about the risk rally," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of FX sales at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong.

"It's clear there is just a reversal of positions going on. Maybe oil could be driving this," he said.

The higher U.S. yields helped the greenback come within a whisker of 110.00 yen JPY= , off this week's trough of 107.75 plumbed on Monday. The dollar was last steady at 109.78 yen.

With the euro on the back foot, the dollar index reversed all of Tuesday's fall and was up around 0.1 percent at 94.575 .DXY , off Tuesday's low of 93.926.

Crude prices were off lows hit earlier this week but remained pressured by concerns over a global glut after Russia and Iran said they were ready to raise oil production further, while U.S. inventories climbed slightly. O/R

That stemmed the recent rally in commodity currencies. The Aussie added 0.2 percent to $0.7807 AUD=D4 but was below the previous session's 10-month peak of $0.7830.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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