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FOREX-Euro fall past $1.08 hangs on U.S. payroll numbers

Published 06/11/2015, 08:17 pm
Updated 06/11/2015, 08:20 pm
FOREX-Euro fall past $1.08 hangs on U.S. payroll numbers
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* Dlr index at 3-mth high on rising expectations of Dec rate hike

* Euro held up by major support around $1.08

* Sterling at 1-month low after BoE dampens rate hike expectations (Recasts after start of European trade)

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The dollar looked set to push the euro below $1.08 for the first time since April if jobs data on Friday delivers the evidence most major banks are hoping for of the U.S. economy's readiness for higher interest rates.

Traders and positioning data say money has piled in behind another rally for the dollar over the past two weeks, but whether the currency can build quickly on a more than 4 percent rise in the past month depends on payrolls cementing expectations of a December rate move.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, seen by many as a swing voter at the U.S. central bank, was the latest to sound open to a move on Thursday and the dollar was holding a touch stronger against the euro at $1.0876 in early trade in Europe.

"All that matters for the Fed is that we get a number that shows the momentum of the data has turned positive again," said Bank of America (N:BAC) Merrill Lynch's head of G10 FX strategy Athanasios Vamvakidis.

"If this number is weak, the number in December may not be enough for the Fed to hike. I think there is some upside risk (for the euro) but after any euro rally we will sell the euro again."

Like a number of the other major currency trading banks, Vamvakidis is predicting a fall in the euro to parity with the dollar in the first quarter of next year and to $1.05 by the end of 2015.

The dollar index .DXY was up just under 0.2 percent at 98.081, in sight of a three-month high of 98.135 .DXY =USD struck during the day on Thursday.

Thursday's big faller was sterling, hit by a surprisingly cautious message from the Bank of England on the dangers to growth and chances of higher rates next year. The pound fell to a one-month low in early trade on Friday.

The median forecast for the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls in a Reuters poll of economists was an increase of 180,000, above slightly sluggish job growth of 142,000 in September. The data is due at 1330 GMT.

Regardless of the U.S. numbers, many think the euro will only come under more pressure over time. The European Central Bank's signal last month that additional policy easing was likely has driven it to its lowest since late July.

"$1.08 is super sticky, but a 200,000 reading on payrolls would do it," said Tobias Davis, a currency hedging manager with Western Union in London.

(Editing by Tom Heneghan)

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