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FOREX-Draghi broadside knocks euro back below $1.07

Published 12/11/2015, 08:53 pm
Updated 12/11/2015, 09:00 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Draghi broadside knocks euro back below $1.07
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* Draghi warning on inflation knocks euro half a cent lower

* Resistance to more falls around $1.07

* Market hopes for direction from string of Fed speakers

* Aussie rallies on strong Oct jobs data (Updates prices)

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The euro dipped briefly below $1.07 on Thursday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi singled out the currency's more robust performance since May as one driver for a "weakening" outlook on inflation.

Draghi's prepared testimony to the European parliament electrified a currency market which has been drifting since a unexpectedly strong batch of U.S. jobs numbers last week prompted many to bet on a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates next month.

Draghi said the bank would re-examine the degree of monetary policy accommodation in place at the ECB's December meeting, adding to expectations it could cut euro deposit rates and expand or extend its programme of bond-buying.

His comments knocked more than half a cent off the euro in roughly 10 minutes in morning trade in Europe before it recovered to trade 0.2 percent lower on the day at $1.0712.

"Some real action after Draghi this morning, but its noticeable that we haven't pushed on," said a trader with one international bank in London.

There is a broad consensus among the major currency trading banks that the dollar should rise but analysts have pointed to several barriers which stand in the way of a swift push to highs of $1.0450 hit in March and April. That has added to a sticky performance this week.

"The broad theme at the moment is that dollar strength is coming back," Barclays (L:BARC) strategist Hamish Pepper said.

"There is a long list of Fed speakers this afternoon so that may be one catalyst. On the data front, we have to wait for U.S. retail sales tomorrow."

Prior to the ECB chief's comments, the Australian dollar had been the day's only big mover, surging more than 1 percent to its highest in a week after the strong jobs readout knocked 0.3 percentage points off unemployment.

A number of European analysts expressed disbelief at the official numbers, which cool expectations of more loosening of monetary policy in an economy that has looked moribund since the end of a China-driven commodities investment boom.

Morgan Stanley (N:MS) are among the more bullish of the major banks on the Aussie but even they urged caution at the numbers.

"Stellar Australian consumer confidence and labour market data support our economists' call for the RBA leaving rates unchanged this year," the bank's strategists said in a note.

"However, the sustainability of Australia's economic rebound is in doubt. Current Aussie strength may only offer tactical bullish opportunities, towards $0.74 AUD= , while the long-term outlook remains bearish."

After a slight retreat at the start of the European session, the Aussie was up 1.1 percent on the day at $0.7136.

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