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FOREX-Dollar stands tall, euro pressured ahead of ECB meeting, yuan volatile

Published 30/11/2015, 03:32 pm
© Reuters. FOREX-Dollar stands tall, euro pressured ahead of ECB meeting, yuan volatile
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* Dollar edges up to fresh 8 1/2-month high vs basket

* ECB widely expected to ease at Thursday's policy meeting

* Sterling drifts down to 7 1/2-month low ahead of BOE

* RBA, BOC seen standing pat on rates this week

* Offshore yuan jumps ahead of IMF basket decision

By Lisa Twaronite and Ian Chua

TOKYO/SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up to a fresh 8-1/2-month high against a basket of global currencies on Monday, while the prospect of further stimulus this week by the European Central Bank kept the euro on the defensive.

The dollar index added about 0.1 percent to 100.12 .DXY after earlier rising as high as 100.23, closing in on a 12-year high of 100.39 set in March.

It was up more than 3 percent for the month, and nearly 11 percent for the year.

"The euro has a high weighting in the dollar index, so when the euro falls, the index tends to rise," said Ayako Sera, a senior market economist with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust in Tokyo.

The euro inched down about 0.1 percent to $1.0583 EUR= , moving back toward last week's low of $1.0565 - a level not seen since April. It was down nearly 4 percent for the month and more than 12 percent in 2015 so far.

Against the yen, the euro was down about 0.2 percent at 129.90 EURJPY=R , not far from a seven-month trough of 129.67 set on Friday.

Soft inflation readings out of the euro zone on Monday and Tuesday could strengthen expectations for ECB action at its Dec. 3 policy review, but whatever the outcome, an easing appeared to be fully factored in. ECONEZ

"The ECB is likely to announce more monetary stimulus at their policy meeting on Thursday, which should see EUR/USD end the week lower and generate a drag on AUD/USD," said Richard Grace, chief currency and rates strategist at Commonwealth Bank.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve is widely tipped to hike U.S. interest rates at its mid-December policy meeting, though Fed Chair Janet Yellen could use a speech on Wednesday to steer markets either way.

Also Friday, the key U.S. payrolls report will be even more closely watched than usual It could cement expectations that the Fed will deliver its first hike in almost a decade, or lead investors to pare back dollar bets.

The diverging monetary policy pathways between the ECB and the Fed have led to an increase in bullish bets on the U.S. currency. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday, speculators further increased long dollar positions in the week through Nov. 17 to their highest in eight months. IMM/FX

The pound sterling, meanwhile, slipped to a seven-month low in Asian trading on Monday, on expectations that the Bank of England will leave interest rates alone.

The BOE will meet on Tuesday, and is seen as likely to increase banks' capital reserve requirements, but any tightening is expected to be modest and not involve raising interest rates. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13M1US

Sterling fell as low as $1.5015 GBP= , its lowest against the dollar since April 23, and was last buying $1.5025.

Against the yen, the dollar was steady at 122.75 JPY= , still in consolidation mode after reaching a three-month peak of 123.77 on Nov. 18. It was on track to rise 1.7 percent in November, and is up 2.5 percent so far in 2015.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told business leaders on Monday the central bank won't hesitate to further ease monetary policy to achieve its two percent inflation goal quickly, and that stable yen moves were desirable. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13P0L9

Japanese economic data released early on Monday were upbeat, in contrast with weak price and spending data released last week. Japan's industrial output rose for a second straight month in October and retail sales grew much faster than expected. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13K2HU

YUAN TRADE CHOPPY AHEAD OF IMF

The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada will also review their policies this week, with both expected to keep rates unchanged.

A private-sector survey of prices showed on Monday that Australian inflation stayed subdued in November, underscoring that the RBA still has plenty of room for further rate cuts even if a move is considered highly unlikely this week. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13P0E1

All 24 economists polled by Reuters see the central bank standing pat at a record low of 2.0 percent on Tuesday.

The Aussie was just a tad under 72 U.S. cents AUD=D4 , having retreated from last week's high of $0.7283. The Canadian dollar stood at C$1.3377 per USD CAD=D4 , nursing Friday's 0.7 percent fall on softer oil prices.

The offshore Chinese yuan CNH= rebounded from early lows by more than 300 pips against the dollar on Monday, with traders suspecting Beijing intervention. In less volatile onshore trade, the yuan fell to a three-month low of 6.3918 to the dollar CNY=CFXS .

The International Monetary Fund is expected to agree on Monday to add the yuan to its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, acknowledging the Chinese unit as a major global currency alongside the dollar, euro, yen, and pound. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13I26K

Some traders expect Beijing may allow the yuan to depreciate after being admitted to the SDR basket, partly to reflect China's slowing economic growth. Bearish views on the currency rose to their highest in three months, according to a Reuters poll last week. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13I2A8 (Editing by Richard Balmforth & Kim Coghill)

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