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FOREX-Dollar recovers, kiwi dives 1 pct on easing talk

Published 07/12/2015, 09:09 pm
Updated 07/12/2015, 09:10 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar recovers, kiwi dives 1 pct on easing talk
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* Kiwi hit by speculation of interest rate cut this week

* Dollar gets help hand from U.S. jobs data

* Some hopes for sterling before BoE rate decision (New throughout)

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar fell 1 percent on Monday before a meeting of the country's central bank where another cut in interest rates is on the table but, many say, not priced in by markets.

The U.S. dollar recovered more ground after last week's loss against the euro, strengthened by jobs data on Friday that bolstered the case for a rise in U.S. interest rates this month.

But with volume diminishing before Christmas and a long run in to the Dec. 16 meeting of the Federal Reserve, this week's action was likely to focus on other currencies in the G10 group of major developed markets.

Some early selling in London drove the kiwi's losses on the day to a full percentage point, and it was down across the board, against the yen, the euro and the Australian dollar.

"Clearly there's going to be some pre-pricing of a move in rates this week," said Dominic Bunning, a strategist with HSBC in London. "Our view is they will cut, and you can see that it's under pressure this morning."

Barclays (L:BARC) analysts also called for the kiwi to fall ahead of Wednesday's Reserve Bank decision on rates, saying a cut was only 40 percent priced in by the market. The currency stood at $0.6675 by 0845 GMT.

The U.S. dollar was up 0.6 percent against the euro at $1.0818, still down almost 3 cents from highs it reached before last Thursday's European Central Bank meeting.

Against a basket of currencies it was up 0.4 percent at 98.703 .DXY . Thursday's loss was its biggest in almost seven years.

Other movers early in London included another 0.3 percent weakening of China's yuan in offshore trade, following another weaker fixing of official rates onshore.

Chinese reserve data showed capital was still flowing out of China, Bunning said, a trend that looked likely to keep putting pressure on the currency.

A weaker yuan, or renminbi, is one of next year's big forecasts for many funds and investment banks as the capital account opens up, allowing more of the profits of a decade of growth to leave China.

But after the IMF included the yuan in its IMF's basket of reserve currencies, some of that flow should be countered by Chinese assets being included in central bank and other official reserves.

A Bank of England meeting this week offers some hope of a boost for sterling, if the bank's minutes again signal a rate increase next year or one or more of the bank's inflation hawks vote at the meeting to raise rates.

Morgan Stanley (N:MS) has switched its recommendation on sterling to a buy on dips to $1.5080, around which it traded on Monday, targeting a rise to $1.54.

"The bank could push back a touch on the market dovish read last month," Citi analyst Josh O'Byrne said in note to clients.

(Editing by Larry King)

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