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FOREX-Dollar on defensive after manufacturing disappoints ahead of jobs data

Published 02/09/2016, 10:34 am
Updated 02/09/2016, 10:40 am
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar on defensive after manufacturing disappoints ahead of jobs data
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* U.S. manufacturing ISM shows surprising contraction

* Dollar index still above this week's low ahead of payrolls

* Pound shines on strong UK manufacturing survey

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back foot on Friday after taking a tumble following a surprise contraction in U.S. manufacturing in August, casting some doubts on the strength of U.S. economic growth ahead of the closely-watched employment data due later in the day.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell 3.2 percentage points to a reading of 49.4, the first contraction since February. result was a setback for dollar bulls, who had bet solid U.S. data this week would cement the case for an early rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The euro EUR= rose to $1.1195, having extended gains from Wednesday's three-week low of $1.1123.

Its next target is seen around $1.1215, where it has its 100-day moving average as well as 38.2 percent retracement of the decline from its Aug 18 peak of $1.1366.

The dollar slipped to 103.21 yen JPY= after having climbed to as high as 104.00 yen, its highest level in over a month.

The dollar index .DXY =USD slipped to 95.669, though it is still above its low so far this week of 95.479, with its fate seen hinging on the looming jobs data.

Employers are expected to have added 180,000 jobs in August, according to the median estimate of 91 economists polled by Reuters. ECONUS

A stronger reading could fan expectations of a near-term rate hike though U.S. Fed Funds rate futures are only pricing in just over 20 percent chance of a tightening at the Fed's next meeting on Sept 21-22, despite recent comments from Fed officials suggesting a hike was imminent.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, a voting member on the Fed's policy-setting committee this year, was the latest to join the chorus on Thursday, saying the U.S. labour market is at full strength and the Fed needs to be on a path of gradual interest rate increases. Fed could have raised rates already if it is just focusing on the employment and wages. They will try to gauge until the last minute whether financial markets can withstand a rate hike," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Elsewhere, the British pound GBP=D4 jumped to a one-month high of $1.3318 on Thursday and was last at $1.3271 after data showed the British manufacturing sector staged one of its sharpest rebounds on record in August.

The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a closely watched gauge of factory activity, jumped to a 10-month high of 53.3 in August, recovering from the three-year low it hit in July after Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union.

The surprise strength could prompt the Bank of England to rethink the need to cut interest rates again if other surveys confirm the trend. also hit one-month highs of 83.885 pence per euro EURGBP=D4 and 138.00 yen GBPJPY=R .

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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