💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

FOREX-Dollar index ends year with 9 percent gain

Published 31/12/2015, 08:50 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar index ends year with 9 percent gain
DX
-
DXY
-

(Repeats, without changes, to additional subscribers)

* Dollar gains vs euro since May 2014 reach 27 pct

* Dollar index up 24 percent over same period

* Yen halts 3-year slide

* China's yuan steadies after further falls over Christmas

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The dollar was set to end 2015 with a 9 percent annual gain against a basket of currencies on Thursday, a fall in December failing to take the shine off its strongest run higher since the turn of the century.

In a rally that dates back to May 2014, the greenback has now appreciated by more a fifth in value against a basket of currencies .DXY and by more than a quarter against the euro.

It was marginally higher against the single currency on the day, down a touch against the yen and in retreat against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which recovered some ground along with global oil prices.

While the consensus among major bank analysts is still for the dollar to gain against peers such as the euro and yen in 2016, such forecasts are less widespread than a year ago and, with some exceptions, stop short of predicting a rise to parity with the euro.

Richard Benson, co-head of portfolio investment at currency fund Millennium Global, said rises in U.S. bond yields since the Federal Reserve delivered its first hike in interest rates on Dec. 16 pointed to a strong start to next year for the dollar.

"The yield differential between dollar and euro rates is enormous. The 2-year yield implies the euro at $1.03," he said. That compared to an exchange rate of $1.0923 on Thursday. EUR=EBS

"If you look at the performance of macro hedge funds this year, a lot of them are flat so they may feel obliged to chase the market at the start of next year. The standout for me is the plain vanilla euro-dollar, euro-sterling rate differential story."

The dollar has lost almost 5 percent to the euro in the past month and the dollar index almost 2 percent. That has been put down by most to sales by investors cashing in on gains made in this year's rally, although there has been some talk this week of a rebalancing of holdings by one or more of the big central banks.

Sterling, driven to an 8-month low on Tuesday by fears over Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union, steadied at $1.4830. It has fallen 4.7 percent against a basket of currencies this year. GBP=

The yen was a touch higher on the day at 120.36 yen and is less than 1 percent weaker over the past 12 months, halting a run of double digit annual depreciations since 2011. JPY=EBS

Offshore rates for China's yuan CNH= also looked steadier, at 6.5700 yuan per dollar, having briefly breached 6.60 yuan per dollar for the first time since the second half of 2011 on Wednesday.

A substantially weaker yuan was among many major banks' top trades for 2016 in a batch of annual outlooks published in the past month.

"People are a bit nervous of chasing the yuan higher," said a dealer with one international bank in London. "There is clearly the danger that, just as they did earlier this month, the authorities there decide to push it the other way for a few days to shake out the speculators." (Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.