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FOREX-Dollar at 2-1/2-month high after Fed keeps Dec rate hike on agenda

Published 29/10/2015, 11:03 am
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar at 2-1/2-month high after Fed keeps Dec rate hike on agenda
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* Dollar index at 2-1/2-month high, near Aug peak

* Fed statement effectively says it will discuss rate hike in Dec

* Euro pressured by ECB easing prospects, hits 6-month low on yen

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The dollar stood near a 2 1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve left the door open for a rate hike in December, when the European Central Bank is widely expected to add to its stimulus.

The fresh confirmation of a contrasting direction in monetary policy was enough to boost the dollar index .DXY =USD to as high as 97.818, its highest level since Aug. 10.

A break above its Aug. 7 peak of 98.334 would bring the index out of its trading range in the past half year, opening the way for a test of its 12-year peak hit earlier this year at 100.39.

The Fed, which kept its rates on hold as expected, took an unusual step of making direct reference to its next meeting in its statement.

"In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the committee will assess progress - both realized and expected - toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation," it said.

In another step towards a rate hike, the Fed also dropped a warning on global economic slowdown.

As a result, money market futures are pricing in about a 50 percent chance of a rate hike in December, compared to around 30 percent previously.

"The Fed's statement is open to interpretation. But for those who have been waiting for a December rate hike, it could be taken as paving the way for that," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

With markets almost split, U.S. data in coming weeks, starting with the advance reading of U.S. GDP due later on Thursday, is seen as holding the key in determining the odds of a December move.

U.S. economic figures in recent weeks are pointing to soft patches, and economists expect a key U.S. manufacturing index due on Monday to show the first contraction in the sector in 2-1/2 years, which not be conducive for a rate hike in December.

As the dollar held an upper hand, the euro fell to $1.0896 EUR= on Wednesday and last stood at $1.0924.

The euro has fallen 3.7 percent since ECB President Mario Draghi signalled the bank was ready to expand its stimulus and cut interest rates deeper into negative territory a week ago.

Against the yen, the common currency fell to a six-month low of 131.97 yen.

The yen, however, weakened against a broadly strong dollar, which rose to 121.12 JPY= from Wednesday's low of 120.02.

The biggest focus for the yen is the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday, with markets unusually split on whether the BOJ would increase its stimulus.

Although some Japanese policy makers have in recent days openly questioned the need for another monetary stimulus at this point, easing hints from the ECB and surprise rate cut by China last week have fanned speculation of BOJ action.

Reflecting market nervousness, the yen recovered some of its previous day's losses after Japan's industrial production beat market expectations, thus reducing expectations of an immediate BOJ policy move.

Elsewhere, the Swedish crown quickly recovered after hitting a two-month low on Wednesday as investors judged the central bank's expansion of its asset purchases insufficient to weaken the currency given expectations of further ECB easing.

The krona initially fell to 9.4360 per euro but recovered to end the day 0.5 percent higher at 9.3450.

The New Zealand dollar also eased 0.3 percent to $0.6678 NZD=D4 after the New Zealand's central bank kept rates on hold as expected but maintained a dovish tone. (Editing by Richard Pullin)

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