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FOREX-Currencies subdued in Christmas holiday lull, dollar steady

Published 24/12/2015, 10:45 am
© Reuters.  FOREX-Currencies subdued in Christmas holiday lull, dollar steady
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* Dollar index steady, euro around $1.0900

* Little action seen with markets in holiday mode

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Dec 24 (Reuters) - The dollar, euro and yen got off to a subdued start on Thursday in what is likely to be a languid session with much of the Western world already shuttered for the Christmas and year-end holidays.

The dollar index .DXY was slightly firmer at 98.377 early in Asia, but still well off last Thursday's peak of 99.294. It was back at levels seen before the Federal Reserve delivered a highly anticipated hike in interest rates a week ago.

A mixed bag of U.S. data on Wednesday gave the market no real steer. New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods fell in November, but personal income rose for an eighth straight month. Consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in December. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N14C0P5

Yet, analysts at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) see potential for further upside in the greenback.

"If U.S. data remains broadly in line with the Fed's expectations, we suspect the USD will be off to a positive start in 2016 as there is plenty of scope for rates markets to price in more Fed hikes," they wrote in a note to clients.

Currently the market is pricing in less than 10 basis points of hikes by the end of March and only 50 basis points for 2016 as a whole, compared to the Fed's own median projection of 100 basis points.

"We exited our cash USD trade recommendations this week but will be looking to re-establish longs early next year," said BNP.

The euro traded at $1.0907 EUR= , nursing a small 0.4 percent fall overnight. Against the yen, the greenback was in familiar territory at 120.93 JPY= having been stuck in a slim 120.72-121.51 range this week.

The Japanese currency has well and truly gotten over last Friday's move by the Bank of Japan to fine tune its massive stimulus program. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1471XB

The Canadian dollar was a notable outperformer, thanks to a rebound in oil prices. The loonie traded at C$1.3854 per USD CAD=D4 after gaining 0.5 percent. It was off a near 12-year trough of C$1.4003 set last week.

The Australian dollar was steady at just above 72 U.S. cents AUD=D4 , while its New Zealand counterpart was also little changed near 68 U.S. cents NZD=D4 .

Both Antipodean currencies have rallied from last week's lows of $0.7097 and $0.6688 respectively, underpinned by heavy buying interest from real money accounts, suggesting the hunt for yield is still in play for some.

Many financial centres around the world will shut early on Thursday and stay closed on Friday for the Christmas holidays. Some will remain shut on Monday.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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