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FOREX-Commodity currencies under pressure, USD marks time

Published 04/08/2015, 09:15 am
Updated 04/08/2015, 09:16 am
FOREX-Commodity currencies under pressure, USD marks time
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* Canadian dollar falls as far as C$1.3175 per USD

* Commodity currencies hit as oil prices sink on China worries

* Australia's central bank meeting next focus

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar languished at 11 year lows early on Tuesday after slipping along with other commodity currencies following a selloff in oil prices, stealing the focus from a subdued U.S. dollar that heald steady against the euro and yen.

The loonie last traded at C$1.3154 per USD CAD=D4 , not far from a low of C$1.3175 set overnight - a level not seen since August 2004. Trading was light with Canadian markets shut for a public holiday on Monday.

"The longer that crude takes to recover, the greater the risk to energy capex plans for 2016 which in turn feeds into the Bank of Canada's projections and lowers the hurdle for further easing down the line," said Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Next resistance targets for USD/CAD are 1.3246 and 1.3383 though it will take ongoing crude weakness to maintain the USD/CAD rally."

The Norwegian crown and Russian rouble, currencies linked to oil prices, also suffered steep declines with the rouble reaching a five-month low around 63.618 per USD RUBUTSTN=MCX .

In contrast, the G3 currencies marked time ahead of key U.S. jobs data due later in the week. The dollar, which was hit on Friday by soft wage growth data, was steadier at 123.98 yen JPY= , while the euro stood at $1.0954 EUR= .

Dollar bulls are now counting on non-farm payrolls on Friday to strengthen the chances of a September hike in interest rates.

Oil prices slid 5 percent to their lowest since January as weak factory activity in China deepened a commodity-wide rout. ID:nL3N10E1KE

This was bad news for the Australian and New Zealand dollars as well, although their falls have been more measured given recent steep declines.

The Aussie last traded at $0.7275 AUD=D4 , on the brink of retesting a six-year trough of $0.7234 set last week. It's kiwi peer dipped to $0.6566 NZD=D4 , holding above a six-year low of $0.6498 plumbed last month.

The Aussie's near-term direction hinges on retail sales and trade data due at 0130 GMT, and the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting at 0430 GMT. ECONAU

While the RBA is considered almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at a record low 2.0 percent, it could try to talk down the currency.

The central bank has consistently said the exchange rate was still high, particularly as commodity prices like iron ore have fallen even more, although RBA Governor Glenn Stevens recently declined to be drawn on whether the currency had fallen enough.

"RBA policymakers have made clear they can ease policy further if data were to deteriorate again and, with commodity prices lower and short AUD positioning not yet stretched, even subtle shifts in a dovish direction would likely add to pressure on the AUD," analysts at BNP Paribas (PARIS:BNPP) wrote in a report.

"We expect AUDUSD to trade down to test 0.70 this year." (Editing by Richard Pullin)

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