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FOREX-Calm start with yen strength still a focus

Published 11/04/2016, 09:59 am
Updated 11/04/2016, 10:00 am
© Reuters. FOREX-Calm start with yen strength still a focus
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* Dollar hovering just above 108 yen after 3.3 pct drop last week

* Canadian dollar bulls pin hope on rallying oil prices

* China inflation data up next

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, April 11 (Reuters) - The world's major currencies got off to a sleepy start on Monday after a relatively uneventful weekend, with the yen consolidating a week of solid gains that saw it climb to highs not seen since 2014.

Nursing a 3.3 percent drop last week, the dollar fetched 108.27 yen JPY= - not far off a trough of 107.67 set on Thursday. A break there could see it test the October 2014 low around 105.20.

The euro bought 123.43 yen EURJPY=R , having shed 3.1 percent last week. Against the greenback, the common currency stood at $1.1404 EUR= , near a six-month peak of $1.1454.

Analysts said part of the reason for the yen's eye-catching rally was due to the unwinding of very bearish positions as investors gave up on a hike in U.S. interest rates this year.

The unwelcome move has probably increased the pressure on Japanese authorities to do more. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said last month further rate cuts were possible, countering talk the bank had limited room left after January's shift to negative rates.

Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) said the yen was still "rather cheap" by valuation even after last week's surge, with its currency matrix putting the long-term fair value near 90.00.

"It will be difficult for the BOJ to sell the JPY as it is deemed as undervalued," said Koon How Heng, an FX analyst at Credit Suisse.

Another currency in favour is the Canadian dollar, which posted its best weekly performance in over three weeks on Friday as oil prices jumped.

The loonie was last at C$1.2986 per U.S. dollar CAD=D4 , not far off a one-week high of C$1.2952 set on Friday.

U.S. crude CLc1 is up over 1.0 percent early on Monday, extending Friday's 6.6 percent surge on hopes that a global oversupply may be approaching a tipping point after nearly two years.

The major Asian event on Monday is the release of China consumer and producer inflation data for March due around 0130 GMT. ECONCN Inflation is expected to ease after a food-driven spike in February, which would offer scope for further policy stimulus.

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