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Fitch Affirms Four Progress Transactions

Published 25/11/2015, 04:56 pm
© Reuters.  Fitch Affirms Four Progress Transactions
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(The following statement was released by the rating agency)SYDNEY, November 25 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed 10 classes of notes from four Progress RMBS series. The transactions are securitisations of Australian conforming residential mortgages originated by AMP Bank Limited. The notes were issued by Perpetual Corporate Trust Limited, in its capacity as trustee of the Series. The full list of rating actions can be found at the end of this commentary. KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmations reflect Fitch's view that the available credit enhancement is sufficient to support the notes' current ratings, and the agency's expectations of Australia's economic conditions. The credit quality and performance of the loans in the collateral pools have remained in line with Fitch's expectations. Lender's mortgage insurance (LMI) is provided by Genworth Financial (N:GNW) Mortgage Insurance Pty Ltd (Insurer Financial Strength Rating: A+/Stable) and QBE Lenders' Mortgage Insurance Limited (Insurer Financial Strength Rating: AA-/Stable). Historically, loans assigned to the Trust on settlement date had 100% LMI cover, however, loan restructures have resulted in a change in LMI status. To the extent that the loans are not insured then any losses incurred on these loans will be considered a breach of AMP Bank's servicer representations and warranties and will be covered by AMP Bank Limited. Progress 2010-1 Trust, Progress 2012-1 Trust, Progress 2012-2 Trust and Progress 2014-2 Trust have LMI covering 99.75%, 99.76%, 99.82% and 99.89% of their respective current pool balance.The weighted average current loan/value ratios (LVRs) for the Progress transactions ranged between 57.5% (Progress 2010-1 Trust) to 64.3% (Progress 2014-2 Trust). The pools benefit from indexation with WA indexed LVRs ranging from 48.1% (Progress 2010-1 Trust) to 58.7% (Progress 2014-2 Trust). All four pools are geographically diversified. At 30 September 2015, 30+ day arrears for Progress 2012-1 Trust and Progress 2014-2 Trust were 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, below Fitch's Dinkum index 30+ day arrears of 1.12%. Progress 2010-1 Trust and Progress 2012-2 Trust's arrears are 1.18% and 1.25% respectively, and were above the Dinkum index 30+ day arrears.At 30 September 2015, only Progress 2010-1 Trust and Progress 2012-1 Trust had recorded losses. Progress 2010-1 Trust experienced three losses accounting for 0.11% of the original pool balance. One loss was covered by LMI and excess spread while the other two losses were fully covered by the seller due to breaches in the seller/servicer's representations and warranties. Progress 2012-1 Trust had one loss, for 0.02% of the original pool balance, which was also fully covered by the seller due to breaches in the seller/servicer's representations and warranties.RATING SENSITIVITIES The prospect for downgrades is considered remote and sequential pay-down has increased credit enhancement for the senior notes of the four transactions.For Progress 2010-1 Trust, Fitch's 'AAAsf' breakeven default level is 7.80%. The Class A and AB notes can respectively withstand an additional 53.49% and 10.77% in default levels at Fitch's 'AAAsf' loss severity. For Progress 2012-1 Trust, Fitch's 'AAAsf' breakeven default level is 8.37%. The Class A and AB notes can respectively withstand an additional 52.23% and 13.56 % in default levels at Fitch's 'AAAsf' loss severity. For Progress 2012-2 Trust, Fitch's 'AAAsf' breakeven default level is 8.55%. The Class A and AB notes can respectively withstand an additional 56.87% and 17.96 % in default rates at Fitch's 'AAAsf' loss severity. For Progress 2014-2 Trust, Fitch's 'AAAsf' breakeven default rate is 9.96%. The Class A and AB notes can respectively withstand an additional 33.06% and 7.17 % in defaults at Fitch's 'AAAsf' loss severity. The Class B and C notes can respectively withstand an additional 6.33% and 2.69% in defaults at Fitch's 'AA-sf' and 'Asf' loss severity. All of the notes are LMI independent except for the Class AB, B and C notes of Progress Trust 2014-2 which are LMI dependent.DUE DILIGENCE USAGENo third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.DATA ADEQUACY Fitch conducted a file review of 10 sample loan files focusing on the underwriting procedures conducted by AMP Bank Limited compared to its credit policy at the time of underwriting. Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information and no material discrepancies were noted that would impact Fitch's rating analysis.A comparison of the transaction's representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms (RW&Es) to those of typical RW&Es for this asset class is available by accessing the reports and/or links given under Related Research below.The rating actions are as follows (balance as of September 2015):Progress 2010-1 Trust:AUD196.0m, Class A (ISIN AU0000POBHA3) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableAUD26.7, Class AB (ISIN AU0000POBHB1) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableProgress 2012-1 Trust:AUD218.9, Class A (ISIN AU3FN0015616) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableAUD24.9m, Class AB (ISIN AU3FN0015624) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableProgress 2012-2 Trust:AUD302.4m, Class A (ISIN AU3FN0016473) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableAUD32.0m, Class AB (ISIN AU3FN0016481) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableProgress 2014-2 Trust:AUD670.2m, Class A (ISIN AU3FN0025672) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableAUD48.0m, Class AB (ISIN AU3FN0025680) affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook StableAUD21.0m, Class B (ISIN AU3FN0025698) affirmed at 'AA-sf'; Outlook StableAUD6.0m, Class C (ISIN AU3FN0025706) affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook StableContacts: Lead Surveillance Analyst Hai Duong LeAssociate Director+61 2 8256 0358Fitch Australia Pty Ltd., Level 15, 77 King St, Sydney, NSW 2000, AustraliaCommittee Chairperson

Natasha VojvodicSenior Director+61 2 8256 0350Media Relations: Leni Vu, Sydney, Tel: +61 2 8256 0304, Email: leni.vu@fitchratings.com.Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.Sources of Information:The source of information used to assess these ratings was the servicer, AMP Bank Limited. The issuer has informed Fitch that not all relevant underlying information used in the analysis of the rated notes is public.Applicable Criteria APAC Residential Mortgage Criteria (pub. 23 Jun 2015)https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=867437Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May 2014)https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744158Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds: Derivative Addendum (pub. 14 May 2014)https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744175Global Criteria for Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance in RMBS (pub. 23 Jun 2015)https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=865195Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 06 Jul 2015)https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=867952Related Research Progress 2010-1 Trust (Australia RMBS) https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=497630Progress 2012-1 Trust https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=679869Progress 2012-1 Trust - New Issue Appendixhttps://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=680589Progress 2012-2 Trust https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=687633Progress 2012-2 Trust - Appendixhttps://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=687635Progress 2014-2 Trust https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=824768Progress 2014-2 Trust - Appendix https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=825968Representations, Warranties and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=867166Additional Disclosures Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr _id=995324Solicitation Status https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=995324Endorsement Policy https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&det ail=31ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S FREE WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services licence (AFS licence no. 337123) which authorises it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001.

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