By Wayne Cole and Charlotte Greenfield
SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar held firm on Wednesday ahead of what should be a well-flagged rise in U.S. interest rates, while a positive business survey lifted the New Zealand dollar a day before a central bank decision at home.
The Aussie AUD=D3 was 0.36 percent higher at $0.7276, with solid support at $0.7236 but stiff resistance in the $0.7295/7305 zone.
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets later Wednesday and is considered certain to raise rates. It will also likely leave the door wide open for another move in December with an upbeat economic outlook.
There is less certainty about what it might project for 2019 and 2020, but a lot is already priced in.
"There is a very strong historic FX pattern when it comes to FOMC meetings with press conferences and Fed policy tightening actions - sell the fact," says Alan Ruskin, global co-head of FX strategy at Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn).
He noted that the Aussie had risen on each of the last six FOMC meetings that had press conferences, even though five of those also had rate hikes.
In this case the market was already heavily priced for another rate rise in December, making it harder for the Fed to spring a hawkish surprise, said Ruskin.
However, he cautioned that history showed investors tended to buy the U.S. dollar back the day after a Fed meeting, with the Aussie falling in the wake of six of the seven rate hikes in this current tightening cycle.
"Sell the USD on the Fed rate hiking day, but, buy the USD the day after that."
Across the Tasman Sea, the kiwi dollar NZD=D4 bounced to $0.6680, from $0.6646, after a survey showed a surprising bounce in business sentiment in September from a decade low.
Firms' assessment of their own activity also picked up after a tough few months. follows recent data showing the economy expanded at a much faster pace than previously thought in the June quarter and should go some way to soothing policy makers' concerns about a slowdown. led investors to further pare the chance of a cut in rates 0#NBB: from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is widely expected to hold at 1.75 percent on Thursday.
Andrew Ticehurst, an economist at Nomura, noted the market had got very short of kiwi and long of bonds in recent weeks in case the RBNZ did indeed cut rates.
"This leaves markets vulnerable to a more positive shift in tone from the RBNZ," he warned.
"In our experience with NZ markets, the door to the exit can be very narrow if everyone chooses to leave the party at the same time."
Yields on New Zealand two-year debt NZ2YT=RR hit all-time lows at 1.620 percent earlier this month, before backing up a little to the current 1.768 percent. 0#NZTSY=
Australian government bond futures were quiet, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 1 tick at 97.835. The 10-year contract YTCc1 was flat at 97.2300.