⏳ Final hours! Save up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Australia, NZ dlrs hard pressed as economic risks fuel rate bets

Published 26/02/2020, 01:51 pm
Australia, NZ dlrs hard pressed as economic risks fuel rate bets
AUD/USD
-
NZD/USD
-
AU3YT=RR
-

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars had their backs to the wall on Wednesday as the mounting economic toll of the coronavirus drove funds to safe havens such as the Japanese yen and shoved local bond yields toward all-time lows.

The Aussie was hard pressed at $0.6600 AUD=D3 , just a whisker above the recent 11-year trough of $0.6585 and down 1.4% for the month so far.

It was under even greater pressure against the yen where it dropped to 72.65 yen AUDJPY= , having ended last week up around 74.00. It was now threatening chart support at 72.38 and a break would take it to levels not seen since October.

The kiwi dollar was pinned near a four-month low at $0.6316 NZD=D3 and close to breaching support at $0.6303.

Investors have been spooked by the spread of the virus and the risks that poses to an open economy like Australia that relies heavily on international trade and tourism.

"Reduced trade and people flows, workplace absenteeism, supply chain disruption, and the impact on consumer and business sentiment are all going to weigh on growth," said analysts at ANZ in a note.

"We revised our Australian outlook lower earlier this month, but the risks are firmly tilted to the downside at present."

Data out on Wednesday showed the local economy was already struggling even before the virus and widespread bushfires wreaked havoc on the tourism sector.

The value of construction work done fell by 3% in the December quarter, when analysts had looked for a drop of only 1%, with home building and engineering both in the dumps.

"Today's statistics suggests private construction work will subtract about 0.4 percentage points from Q4 GDP," said Kaixin Owyong, an economist at NAB.

"NAB is forecasting a 0.4% rise in Q4 GDP and these data suggest that there is some downside risk to that forecast."

The full report on gross domestic product (GDP) is due on March 4 and was already expected to show another sub-par quarter of growth, largely due to weakness in household consumption.

The run of gloomy news boosted bonds as investors wagered central banks, both at home and abroad, would have to ease to mitigate the risks from the virus.

Markets still think it highly unlikely the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would act as soon as its next policy meeting on March 3, but futures 0#YIB: now imply around a 38% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in April.

The probability of a move by May has climbed to 66%, while June is put at 82%.

Yields on three-year bonds AU3YT=RR have dropped 10 basis points in the past five sessions to reach 0.627%, and were fast approaching the record low at 0.553%.

Three-year bond futures YTTc1 were up 1.5 ticks on Wednesday at 99.380. The 10-year contract YTCc1 was steady at 99.0750, implying a yield of 0.925%.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.