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Australia dlr hits 5-mth low on yen, NZ$ fares better

Published 28/11/2017, 01:33 pm
Australia dlr hits 5-mth low on yen, NZ$ fares better
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By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar was back on the defensive on Tuesday as its fading appeal as a higher-yielding carry currency caused a shake-out in long positions against the Japanese yen.

The Aussie was stuck at $0.7606 AUD=D4 , after an attempted bounce overnight failed at $0.7645.

Its New Zealand counterpart fared better at $0.6924 NZD=D4 , having rallied from $0.6854 on Monday as speculators took profits on short positions for the month end.

The Aussie suffered most against the yen, hitting a five-month low at 84.31 yen AUDJPY= and breaking support at 84.45. The next major chart target was put at 83.68.

The Aussie has slipped steadily from atop 88 yen at the start of the month, in part reflecting its diminishing yield advantage over the U.S. dollar.

The premium paid by Australian government two-year debt AU2YT=TWEB over U.S. notes US2YT=TWEB has shrunk to a single basis point, from as much as 60 basis points back in September. The spread on short-term swap rates is already negative.

The last time Australian yields traded under the U.S. was in mid-2000, when the Aussie was changing hands around 63 yen.

"We still contend that Aussie will drop through $0.7500 one side or other of year-end, driven primarily by a decisive move into negative territory for the likes of the 2-year AU-US swap rate differential," said NAB's global head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill.

"It may take an increase in confidence that the spread is not coming back into Australia's favour anytime soon to see the Aussie lower," he added.

Attrill noted that when the spread went negative in the late 1990s it took a year or more before the shift was reflected in a sharply weaker currency.

The Aussie also ran into selling against the kiwi, falling back to a five-week trough at NZ$1.0965 AUDNZD=R .

There was little in the way of domestic economic data out on Tuesday and the next local event was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's financial stability review on Wednesday morning.

The review is a wide ranging report on the banking sector and household finances and includes a media conference with the head of the central bank.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= firmed in price, nudging yields down as much as 2.5 basis points.

Australian government bond futures likewise gained, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 2 ticks at 98.090. The 10-year contract YTCc1 rose 3 ticks to 97.4900.

(Editing by Richard Pullin)

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