By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, May 15 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars dipped on Friday amid doubts on how quickly the global economy can recover from the coronavirus, while kiwi bonds suffered sticker shock at government plans to more than double its debt load.
The Aussie eased to $0.6458 AUD=D3 , leaving it with losses of 1.1% on the week so far. For three weeks now, it has repeatedly tested resistance in the $0.6550/70 zone and failed to break through, leaving it vulnerable to a retracement to support around $0.6375.
The kiwi dollar was pinned at $0.5997 NZD=D3 , having shed 2.1% for the week on talk of negative interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) this week doubled its bond buying programme and asked commercial banks to be ready for sub-zero rates by year end should they prove necessary.
That led the market to price in a quarter-point rate cut to zero by early next year and then a possible shift to negative by mid 2021. RBNZWATCH
Yields on 10-year bonds NZ10YT=RR duly dived to an all-time low at 0.51%, only to reverse sharply to 0.705% on Friday after the government announced it would borrow a lot more than expected to fund an aggressive stimulus package. all, it plans to spend around NZ$62 billion ($37.24 billion), or 20% of annual GDP, to support the economy. Bond issuance will hit NZ$190 billion over five years, up from a previous goal of just NZ$42 billion.
"The government has chosen to go hard and go early in its response," said Westpac's chief NZ economist Dominick Stephens. "On the whole we think this was the right thing to do. It will reduce the risk that COVID-19 causes permanent damage to the economy, and opens a much clearer path to recovery."
"But being bold is risky. This could saddle future taxpayers with onerous debts," he added. "We expect that low interest rates will keep the debt burden manageable, but that would change if interest rates rose."
Australia also has to borrow massively to fund its stimulus campaign, but so far has found willing buyers in the market. A record A$19 billion sale of new 2030 bonds this week drew bids for a huge A$53.5 billion, with hedge funds taking a fat slice of the offer.
An auction of A$2 billion of an established 2024 bond on Friday drew a healthy A$5.4 billion of bids.
All this demand has helped keep 10-year yields AU10YT=RR steady around 0.90% even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has sharply scaled back its own purchases.
"Given the record size for the new 2030 line there is little doubt that the market is functioning well, even with the sharp rise in supply," said Jack Chambers, a rates strategist at ANZ.
"Unless the RBA decides to step up its policy actions, say in response to a sustained appreciated of the AUD, it seems likely that it will keep is bond purchases to a minimum."
($1 = 1.6650 New Zealand dollars) (Editing by Sam Holmes)