Selloff or Market Correction? Either Way, Here's What to Do NextSee Overvalued Stocks

Australia, NZ dollars pinned down by commodities, policy meetings

Published 26/04/2016, 01:33 pm
© Reuters.  Australia, NZ dollars pinned down by commodities, policy meetings
NZD/USD
-
AU2YT=RR
-
NZ2YT=RR
-

By Cecile Lefort and Rebecca Howard

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were biding time under recent highs on Tuesday, as investors showed caution ahead of key policy decisions later in the week.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 was steady at $0.7712, and off an 10-month peak of $0.7836 touched last week. It has rallied 0.7 percent so far this month and was up 4 cents so far this year.

Support was found at $0.7669 and resistance at $0.7730.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 rose 0.3 percent to $0.6874, but was still a fair way off a 10-month high of $0.7055.

The Antipodean currencies were pinned down by subdued commodity prices such as iron ore, Australia's top export earner.

Also capping demand for risk assets were policy meetings by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Japan's Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), all due out on Thursday local time.

"Markets will remain myopically focused on Thursday's central bank extravaganza," said Sam Tuck, senior FX strategist for ANZ Bank. "With all due respect to the RBNZ and BOJ, the focus this week will be on what the Fed delivers at 6 am on Thursday NZT," said Tuck.

Tuck expects a short term range for the Kiwi of $0.6750 to $0.6900.

While the Fed is considered certain to stand pat on interest rates, the RBNZ's decision to ease or not is more of a line-ball call.

A Reuters poll of 23 economists shows the vast majority expect rates to be kept steady at 2.25 percent, while markets RBNZWATCH imply around a 50-50 chance of a cut on Thursday. NZ/POLL

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is seen likely to keep rates steady in coming months, with debt futures implying a one-in-four chance of an easing by June.

Such differences are reflected in the spread between Australian and New Zealand two-year bonds NZ2YT=RR AU2YT=RR which dropped to 8 basis points, the thinnest in three years.

Australian government bond futures fell to one-month lows, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 off 2 ticks at 97.940. The 10-year contract YTCc1 also lost 2 ticks to 97.3350, while the 20-year contract YXXc1 was steady at 96.7650.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= were largely flat at the short end while yields were a tad higher at the long end.

"NZ's high relative yields remain attractive in a global context and are likely one factor in the NZ rates market's outperformance," said BNZ Currency Strategist Jason Wong.

The same applies to Australia's two-year AU2YT=RR cash yields which jumped to 2.1 percent, the highest this year. (Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.