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UPDATE 1-NZ raises Q3 CPI estimate, central bank still seen easing

Published 07/11/2016, 10:48 am
Updated 07/11/2016, 10:50 am
© Reuters.  UPDATE 1-NZ raises Q3 CPI estimate, central bank still seen easing

(Adds analyst comment, outlook for monetary policy)

By Charlotte Greenfield

WELLINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - New Zealand's statistics bureau on Monday corrected its third-quarter consumer price index to show inflation had risen faster than originally reported, just days before the country's central bank was expected to cut interest rates to record lows.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely forecast to trim rates to 1.75 percent on Thursday, largely because inflation has been uncomfortably low for far too long.

Policy makers might thus be a little relieved after Statistics New Zealand corrected its consumer price index to show a 0.3 percent rise in the three months to September, up from the 0.2 percent originally reported.

The correction put annual inflation at 0.4 percent, up from 0.2 percent, though still below the central bank's long term target band of 1 to 3 percent.

The agency said the correction was required after it discovered a "manual processing error" in the way it calculated transport prices.

"I don't think it's relevant to what they (RBNZ) already had lined up for this Thursday, I'd be flabbergasted if it did," said BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert.

The RBNZ has all but committed itself to at least one more easing, which is why 30 out of 33 economists polled by Reuters expect rates to be cut by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 1.75 percent on Nov. 10. NZ/POLL

A recent run of upbeat activity data has underlined the economy's vigour, yet inflation still remains low enough that it risks an unwelcome spiral into deflation. RBNZ would likely ease to avoid creating any volatility in markets and to ensure inflation does rise back into its target band as desired, economists said.

Yet the upward revision to inflation did strengthen the case for holding rates next year.

"The angst about inflation expectations and whether the CPI's going to pick up at all will maybe start to dissipate," said Ebert.

The non-tradable consumer price index rose 0.5 percent on the quarter, corrected from the originally reported 0.3 percent. Its annual rise was 2.4 percent, not 2.1 percent as previously reported.

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